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How close did the supercomputer come with its Six Nations predictions

Mathematicians used a complex scientific formula by feeding rugby data into a computer to try to predict the outcome from every match in this year’s tournament.

The results were forecast by QBE Business Insurance, who used a computer model to simulate each of the 15 matches 10,000 times to come up with the most likely final outcome.


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They have factored in a raft of rugby issues, including form, home advantage, the number of tries and successful kicks at goal teams average, world rankings and even the number of caps of each captain.

Similar predictions were made for Wales’ autumn internationals. One scoreline was pretty much spot on, as QBE forecast a Wales 18 New Zealand 34 result. The actual score was 18-33.

So how close did they come? Here’s how we’ll judge.

RED – Wrong Result
AMBER Correct result, each teams score more than seven out
GREEN – Correct result and score tallys within seven

ROUND ONE

Wales 23 Scotland 19 (Wales 34 Scotland 7)

France 17 Ireland 24 (France 13 Ireland 15)

Italy 12 England 36 (Italy 15 England 46)

ROUND TWO

Ireland 41 Italy 12 (Ireland 56 Ireland 19)

England 29 Wales 18 (England 12 Wales 6)

Scotland 24 France 17 (Scotland 32 France 26)

ROUND THREE

France 33 Italy 16 (France 34 Italy 17)

Ireland 23 Wales 17 (Ireland 37 Wales 27)

Scotland 18 England 26 (Scotland 25 England 13)

ROUND FOUR

Ireland 28 Scotland 16 (Ireland 28 Scotland 8)

France 18 England 24 (France 22 England 16)

Wales 40 Italy 16 (Wales 38 Italy 14)

ROUND FIVE

Italy 13 Scotland 27 (Italy 27 Scotland 29)

England 19 Ireland 17 (England 15 Ireland 24)

Wales 23 France 13 (Wales 14 France 13)

FINAL TABLE

1: England (Ireland)

2: Ireland (Wales)

3: Wales (Scotland)

4: Scotland (France)

5: France (England)

6: Italy (Italy)


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