Guinness Six Nations 2019 Round 3 Predictions

Scotland travel to France with the aim of winning at the Stade de France for the first time since 1999, the year they famously won the final Five Nations trophy. Wales look to make it 12 unbeaten against one of the best England sides we’ve seen in years, who could take a huge stride towards winning the title if they overcome Warren Gatland’s side.

And as if that wasn’t enough, Joe Schmidt looks to regain some ground on the title race with a trip to Rome to face an Italian side who look like they’re
crawling ever closer to that rare Six Nations victory. I think it’d be fair to say that we are well and truly ready for this one.

This prediction has become somewhat of a sword sized thorn in my side because I really don’t know how to call this one. France have been utterly shambolic so far, and despite a reported player revolt led by Morgan Parra, Jacques Brunel has stuck relatively close to the team he started the
tournament with.

Parra’s complaints clearly did him no favours as he drops out of the match day 23 along with Camille Lopez, who was also pretty vocal in the aftermath at Twickenham. There’s a feeling that Brunel really doesn’t know his best side yet, and in some areas that would definitely appear to be the case.

No discredit to Romain Ntamack, but to be pulling the strings in your third
cap seems very optimistic. Obviously there are some positions where there are no doubts at all, such as the exciting prop Demba Bamba and the ever impressive Louis Picamoles at 8 (who I’m really excited to see against Josh Strauss), but for me I can’t see how this side will have improved from their humbling at Twickenham, so it’ll be interesting to see how they attempt to restore some pride.

Meanwhile, Scotland are having an injury crisis far worse than I can remember any team having in the Six Nations. But now it’s gotten really serious, as Finn Russell, Huw Jones and Stuart Hogg all drop out of the squad through injury. That would scare a Scotland fan much more three or four years ago than it would now, as their squad depth is tremendously further forward than it was back at the last World Cup, but those are three names you desperately don’t want to hear on the injury list.

Imagine England losing Owen Farrell, or Ireland missing Peter O’Mahony, or Wales having Alun Wyn Jones on their absences list, the panic button would be smashed to pieces. How Peter Horne will do at 10, I’m unsure, but he played a blinder at Cardiff Arms Park last weekend. France is an entirely different prospect, but they’ve hardly lit the tournament alight this campaign apart from that first half against Wales.

Blair Kinghorn’s return to the starting setup will bring some comfort to the dark blues, but ultimately he’s not quite an in-form Stuart Hogg so it’s fair to say they’re definitely not running at full strength, but I think they’re not worlds away either.

I’m going with Scotland for this weekend’s opener, simply because I believe in their side more given their performances in the opening two rounds. France have been far from their best and it really showed last weekend and if Scotland can put all the talk of their away form out of their minds and seriously punish France’s defensive atrocities, I could see this game swinging in Scotland’s favour and what a historic result that would be.

Don’t expect France to make it easy though.

Now before I begin I need to drop this statistic in here because it is utterly ridiculous. This Saturday will be Alun Wyn Jones’s 18th test match against England… that truly is the stuff of legends but 18?!?! Give that man a medal.

Game of the weekend goes to the showdown in Cardiff. No doubt. Wales against England is like the Manchester United versus Liverpool of rugby. Pride, history, passion, and most importantly, some seriously good ruggers. They’re the first things I think of when this fixture comes up, but the build-up hasn’t been this good since the 30-3 title win for Wales in 2013. 

Ultimately, this one decides if England are winning the title in two weeks, because if they can bag a victory in Cardiff, then two home games await them, and the fourth round is against Italy whom they’ve never lost against. If they do what we’re all conceiving to be unthinkable given Wales’ recent form and take a bonus point back to London, then the only question to answer is will Scotland stop the Grand Slam on March 16?

Last year’s result was underwhelming as it finished 12-6 in London and struggled to ever really get going, but Wales have completely turned themselves round in the 12 months since then, and despite people thinking their streak has been underwhelming with only a handful of significant wins over top tier nations, they’ve pulled themselves through some pretty tough contests and are worthy of their winning run. 

With that said, this weekend will be the biggest test of all, especially for Gareth Anscombe who will need to step up big time if he wants to guide his side to victory. England losing Mako Vunipola and Chris Ashton won’t exactly make things any easier for them either, as Ben Moon and Jack Nowell are worthy replacements who can get the result Eddie Jones needs.

Ultimately though, and whether Jonny May has scored 12 in 12 or not, or whether George North as returned to fever-pitch form, the big battle will be at the breakdown, as the northern hemispheres biggest behemoths collide up front, and that’s not just any old pile up.

This one could seriously outline which way the trophy goes, and as well as England have played, I don’t think they’re going to be anywhere near as comfortable as they’ve looked all tournament. But given that we’ve seen two Welsh performances that weren’t exactly ones for the highlight reel, I feel England might just pull one out the bag in a similar fashion to the last time they went along the M4.

This fixture last year had a much more relaxed feel for Ireland. Joe Schmidt’s men were steamrolling towards the Grand Slam, and this was just a dip in the camber of the road rather than a bump. Now, after losing to England, there appears to be a heightened level of safety in the team that’s going to have to come away from Rome with a bonus point or nothing.

If Ireland genuinely want to stand a chance of winning the tournament and retaining their title, they need as much as they can get, so it’s no wonder the mercenaries in Johnny Sexton, Rob Kearney, Jacob Stockdale, Peter O’Mahony and Taigh Furlong are all running out at the Stadio Olympico this weekend. But it does feel particularly overkill even for Ireland.

Losing Joey Carberry did mean they had to bring Sexton in, and having exhausted James Ryan in the first two he was worthy of a break, so some changes were routine, but some of the names in Ireland’s team sheet do scream genuine concern to say the least.

For Italy, the loss of skipper Sergio Parisse isn’t a total disaster. The form Abraham Steyn has shown has been spectacular so far and he will only get better the more game time he gets. However, he’s no Parisse, and for the Azzurri, it’s a bit more than no Parisse no party.

Italy can beat a strong Ireland side, we saw them do just that in 2013, and although that doesn’t feel too far away, this is a whole new level of rugby from Ireland. Italy have shown slow but steady improvement despite not winning since 2015, and I keep saying a shock is on the horizon, but I can’t see that happening this weekend, because if you look at the last couple of seasons, this fixture has raked in some serious points for the Irish.

There’s not too much to say about this fixture, as we all know what to expect, which is a shame for Italy as we all want a fair contest. But I just can’t see it being this weekend that their fortunes are reversed. If these are my famous last words, and Italy beat Ireland, then I might have to pack these predictions in.