It was announced yesterday by Johnny Sexton’s lifelong club, that the fly-half is likely to miss the rest of the United Rugby Championship season. It looks like Sexton has played his last game for Leinster, as the 37-year-old plans for retirement following the 2023 Rugby World Cup in France.
Sexton re-aggravated a groin injury in the final match of the 2023 Guinness Six Nations, on the way to leading Ireland to a Grand Slam triumph over England.
Picking up the injury in Ireland’s ‘clash of the titans’ win over France in round two, Sexton was side-lined for the following trip to Rome. He watched on from the Stadio Olympico, as Ross Byrne orchestrated the victory over Italy, and Sexton’s injury was played down to be a ‘rest-week’ for the skipper.
Sexton received an all but perfect send-off in his final Six Nations match, as he surpassed Ronan O’Gara’s points-scoring record in the competition, yet was forced off the pitch earlier than he’d hoped. Byrne replaced Sexton after 73 minutes, with the Irish captain reaping the plaudits from the crowd, as he exited the Aviva.
Caught up in the combined St Patrick’s Day and Grand Slam celebrations, Ireland fans were far too overjoyed to worry about Sexton’s slightly earlier than planned withdrawal. However, with the dust settled on the Six Nations, all Irish eyes now turn to the possibility of winning their first ever Rugby World Cup this Autumn.
Sexton’s Rugby World Cup status is as yet unconfirmed, but the question marks have risen around whether he will be fully fit for the entire competition. After the harrowing news was broken by Leinster, it’s time to consider whether Ireland could go the whole way without Sexton in the squad.
Ireland play Romania in their opening match of the 2023 Rugby World Cup. Their campaign kicks off on the 9th of September, which leaves Sexton with little over five months to get match fit for the opener. However, this can be regarded as the best case scenario for Sexton, and Andy Farrell may even prefer to rest his talisman for the opening two rounds.
As World Rugby’s Number One ranked nation, Ireland view the presented threat of Romania as a physical battle, but should result in a straightforward Irish victory. This is then followed up by Tonga, who are again the hard-hitting underdogs that are looking to upset the odds on the grandest stage. Ireland should be fine without Sexton for these two matches, as Andy Farrell’s side is by no means a ‘one man team’.
Ireland have ‘World’s Best in their Position’ contenders from one to 15. A fully fit Ireland starting XV is a scary sight for any opposition, yet all guns will have to be blazing for Ireland’s third pool stage match. On Saturday 23rd, Ireland take on South Africa, in what will be a certified Parisian ‘classique’.
Man to man, Ireland and the Springboks match up pretty closely. A ‘dream XV’ of Irish and South African players would see an even split of Emerald Green and Dark Green & Gold shirts. Siya Kolesi or Josh van der Flier? Cheslin Kolbe or James Lowe? Lukanyo Am or Bundee Aki? Eben Etzebeth or Tadhg Beirne? The competition between the two teams at full fitness is simply immense.
On his day, Johnny Sexton pips Handre Pollard, just. The two masterful fly-halves can dictate the tempo of play to the single second, with the presence or absence of Sexton either making or breaking this match for Ireland. This in no way takes away from the ability of Ross Byrne, but on the World Cup stage against the pinnacle of South African opposition, Byrne’s 19 Ireland caps don’t stack up to the reigning World Champions.
Despite how good Pollard is currently playing for Leicester, a fully fit Sexton eclipses him in his current ‘evergreen’ form. What Sexton may lack physically against Pollard, he makes up for in knowledge and game management. His leadership qualities are unmatched in a green jersey, and he has the methodical wherewithal to control the game and make well thought out decisions in the crucial moments.
Sexton can keep a cool head when slotting vital penalties, and is Ireland’s best option to diffuse the fabled ‘bomb squad’ of South African replacements, when legs start to tire. If Sexton is not on the pitch at the Stade de France, then advantage sways towards the Springboks for matchday three.
Then matchday four comes around, and it is all to play for. Ireland take on Scotland, with Gregor Townsends’ side presumably in the same boat as Ireland without Sexton. Two bruising victories over Romania and Tonga has depleted the squad enough to fall to South Africa, which sees this crucial contest as the decider to get out of Pool B.
In a similar fettle, XV vs XV, there is little to choose between Ireland and Scotland. A Gaelic XV of Tartan and Green would make for a super-side capable of being World Champions, but Ireland take the advantage in the ‘Head to Head’. Their recent meeting in the Guinness Six Nations saw Ireland grind out a 7-22 away win in Edinburgh, as the two nations cancelled each other out in attack and defence.
Without Sexton, Ireland have the man-power to overcome Scotland physically, and put them on the back-foot for Byrne to build a points tally. After a back-and-forth tug of war, advantage favours Ireland, who would likely progress out of the Pool and into the knockout stages. Scotland will leave it all on the line, in what could be Stuart Hogg’s final match of professional rugby, with the full-back announcing his shock retirement plans after the 2023 Rugby World Cup.
Now onto the knockout stages, with Ireland on the unfavourable end of a lop-sided World Cup draw. The top five highest ranked World Rugby nations are competing in either Pool A or Pool B, with Ireland lining up quarter-final and semi-final run ins with France, New Zealand or even a reunion with the Springboks.
Ireland have a brutal road to the final, and require the leadership of Sexton in their camp. It is hard to say if Sexton becomes the be-all and end-all for Irish World Cup hopes, with Ross Byrne, Ciaran Frawley, Joey Carbery and Jack Crowley all viable options to lead the line from flay half. Andy Farrell has preferred Byrne as Sexton’s recent understudy, and will have a power struggle on his hands come the end of the 2023 Rugby World Cup.
England Head Coach Steve Borthwick knows all too well about the complications that come with uncertainty in the 10 jersey, with Andy Farrell’s son at the very heart of the discussion. Confusion and off-field selection issues can pull a team’s focus astray from the task at hand, and for Ireland that is winning the 2023 Rugby World Cup. If Andy Farrell is certain in Byrne being his stand-in fly half, then the time is now to start preparations to build the squad around the Leinsterman, if Sexton misses the World Cup.
There is time for Farrell to orchestrate a re-kindled attacking line, with Byrne steering the ship if worst comes to worst with Sexton. Yet Farrell needs to chose his man and stick with it, if the news breaks on Sexton’s early and unfortunate retirement from rugby. Last minute changes and dropping players back to their clubs can only complicates matters, when a team is moving in a new direction so close to a major competition.
It is unlikely to know anytime soon, if Sexton will take part in the 2023 Rugby World Cup, or if the groin injury is a career-ender. Here’s hoping that the Dubliner can make his comeback for a fairy-tale farewell, and lead his side to Rugby World Cup glory for their first time in their history.