Predicting the 2026 Six Nations final standings

From champions defending crowns to rebuilds seeking belief, this year promises drama. Here is our prediction for how the final standings will unfold over the coming weeks.

Wales are tipped to finish last again, but this time with a vital win, most likely against Scotland or Italy. Steve Tandy’s arrival has lifted the gloom that hung over the latter Gatland years, and while concerns remain around the WRU and domestic structure, the national squad is quietly improving.

On paper, they look more competitive than in recent campaigns. The likely absence of Jac Morgan for most of the tournament is a major blow, though a possible return for the final rounds could prove decisive. Progress, not silverware, defines their campaign.

Placing Scotland fifth feels harsh, but momentum has clearly stalled. Their autumn collapse against Argentina at Murrayfield summed up a side that seems to have peaked under Gregor Townsend, who now faces real pressure.

A brutal fixture list does them no favours: Italy away in the opener and Wales away in week three make their two most winnable matches far more treacherous. With confidence fragile and rivals improving, Scotland may find themselves scrapping at the bottom. Expect tight margins, bonus points deciding places, and a campaign that feels like the start of a difficult transition.

Italy look ready to take a genuine step forward in 2026. Years of steady development are beginning to bear fruit, with a squad that now blends grit with real attacking flair. Players like Tommaso Menoncello bring star quality, while a promising group of youngsters are pushing standards higher.

Their autumn victory over Australia proved they can perform at a high level when it matters. If combinations click and belief remains strong, Italy could trouble the established order. A top-four finish would mark real progress, and a statement win feels increasingly inevitable for this confident Azzurri side.

Ireland remain formidable, but signs of transition are unavoidable. Key figures such as Bundee Aki, James Lowe and Jamison Gibson-Park are ageing, and while exciting young talent is emerging, replacing that experience will not be seamless. They should dispatch the bottom three comfortably, yet may struggle to match France and England’s intensity.

Andy Farrell’s return provides stability after Simon Easterby’s stint, though many players arrive undercooked after a demanding year, including Lions commitments. Still, their depth, organisation and competitive edge make them outside title contenders, capable of punishing any lapse from the tournament favourites.

As reigning champions, France once again look like the side to beat. With Antoine Dupont back, they arguably boast the strongest squad on paper, blending physical power with unrivalled creativity. Crucially, their toughest fixtures – Ireland in the opener and England in the finale – come at home, giving them a significant edge.

Fabien Galthié’s unstructured approach can produce moments of brilliance or sudden vulnerability, meaning an off-day is never impossible. Nevertheless, France will back themselves to dominate again, and only a near-perfect England campaign appears capable of denying them another Six Nations crown.

England enter 2026 as favourites, riding an 11-game winning streak and boasting extraordinary depth across every position. Steve Borthwick has built a likeable, unified squad with the quality to energise public support, much like the Red Roses recently did.
Confidence is high, competition for places is fierce, and performances have been consistently ruthless.

The key test will be a trip to Murrayfield, where Scotland have so often frustrated them. If England navigate that hurdle and reach Paris with everything still to play for, they have the belief and momentum to finish the job on the final day.