Dave Rennie faces a major selection headache ahead of the All Blacks’ clash with the Springboks on Saturday, with injuries creating uncertainty in several key positions.
The first Test of Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry tour takes place at Ellis Park in Johannesburg, where Rennie must make some big calls as he looks to name a side capable of matching the world champions on home soil.
15 Damian McKenzie
Everything depends on McKenzie’s fitness. Assuming his ankle issue is minor enough for him to feature, he is the clear first-choice fullback available to the All Blacks.
Rennie has expressed concerns over his availability, although that could simply be an attempt to keep the Springboks guessing over his selection.
14 Will Jordan
The same applies to Jordan. If fit, he starts. His injury situation appears less concerning than McKenzie’s, with Rennie confirming that he has returned to training.
The winger is the best option in his position within the squad and one of the best in the world, so there is little doubt he will be selected if available.
13 Quinn Tupaea
Tupaea has been one of the squad’s form players, while Billy Proctor’s injury has further strengthened his case. Based on current form, there is little genuine competition for the outside centre shirt, making Tupaea the obvious choice to start.
12 Jordie Barrett
Barrett is another straightforward selection based on his form. He was excellent against the Sharks in midweek, building on an impressive season at both club and international level. His experience will also be invaluable in a Test of this magnitude.
11 Josh Moorby
The battle between Leroy Carter and Moorby for the left wing is one of the closest calls in the backline. Both could ultimately start if Jordan is unavailable, but Moorby gets the nod after an excellent year. His 17 Super Rugby tries underline his form, while he has also impressed on tour.
10 Ruben Love
Love has made the number 10 shirt his own in recent weeks. The Hurricanes star has outperformed his competition, with Beauden Barrett not doing enough to justify displacing him and Richie Mo’unga not yet in consideration for the first Test.
Even with Mo’unga now around the squad, Love is the man in form and deserves the opportunity.
9 Cam Roigard
Roigard is another selection that depends entirely on fitness. Like Jordan, he has returned to training but has not featured heavily on tour.
When fit, he is the clear first-choice scrum-half, so if he is available, he should start. Cortez Ratima has performed well on tour but looks to be injured, meaning Kyle Preston may be the second option.
1 Ethan de Groot
De Groot starting with Xavier Numia providing impact from the bench would give the All Blacks an ideal combination. At 28, the Highlanders prop is in his prime and has looked increasingly impressive under Rennie.
His solidity at scrum time would be particularly important against the Springboks.
2 Codie Taylor
Taylor has strengthened the set piece significantly compared with his fellow hookers and even scored twice against the Bulls. His pedigree and experience make him the obvious choice, and it would be a major surprise if he did not start.
3 Tyrel Lomax
The tighthead decision comes down to Lomax or Fletcher Newell. Whoever misses out will still provide valuable impact from the bench, but Lomax gets the nod after starting against Ireland. That feels like the strongest indication of how Rennie views his strongest available XV.
4 Fabian Holland
Josh Lord and Sam Darry will have something to say about this selection, but Holland has looked revitalised since returning from a lengthy injury lay-off.
That could prove particularly valuable in a match where most players will arrive after long and demanding seasons. His height, physicality and work rate make the Dutch-born lock a potentially huge asset.
5 Patrick Tuipulotu
Tuipulotu brings experience and physicality, two qualities the All Blacks will need in abundance against the Springboks. His leadership alongside the less experienced Holland also provides a good balance in the second row.
6 Tupou Vaa’i
Against the Springboks, the All Blacks will need as much physicality as possible up front. That makes Vaa’i an attractive option at blindside, particularly given his second-row background and imposing frame. He also has plenty of experience despite his age and has continued to develop with the Chiefs.
7 Luke Jacobson
Anton Segner came extremely close to taking this shirt after an impressive tour and looks like a player with a bright future in black. For now, however, Jacobson just retains his place.
Segner may have outperformed him on tour, but the 29-year-old has significantly more experience against top-level opposition, which gives him the edge.
8 Ardie Savea
Despite only arriving in South Africa last week and not yet featuring on tour, captain Savea should be one of the first names on Rennie’s team sheet. He is a genuine game changer and could make the difference against the world champions.
These are precisely the kinds of matches where the All Blacks need a player of Savea’s quality.
Replacements
16 Asafo Aumua
17 Xavier Numia
18 Fletcher Newell
19 Josh Lord
20 Anton Segner
21 Kyle Preston
22 Beauden Barrett
23 Rieko Ioane
With the starting front row in place, the replacements are fairly straightforward. Aumua just gets the nod ahead of Samisoni Taukei’aho, while Numia and Newell provide the second-choice options up front.
Lord offers second-row cover, although the presence of Vaa’i at blindside means Rennie could arguably opt for two additional loose forwards. Segner has also played himself into the squad ahead of Peter Lakai and Wallace Sititi following his performances on tour.
A 5-3 bench split looks the most likely, with the backline replacements offering plenty of experience and versatility. Barrett and Ioane would provide significant impact if called upon late in the match.
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