"England 3% Chance" - Super Computer Predicts The Winners of 2024 Six Nations & Grand Slam

: "The international retirement of Courtney Lawes gives England the chance to look at a specialist No 6, and if they do so I would throw in Chandler Cunningham-South for his first cap.

RUCK’s 2024 Guinness Six Nations content

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Ireland have a whopping 61.5% chance of winning the Six Nations and a 49.6% chance of winning another Grand Slam, according to data analysts.

A team of expert statisticians at Grosvenor Sport have created a model which can simulate the result of every Six Nations game 1,000 times to give the most accurate result possible.

Using the current World Rugby rankings, as well as Home Advantage and Bonus Point likelihood, Ireland won the tournament 615 times out of 1,000 - meaning they have a 61.5% chance of winning the tournament.

Using these raw figures to assimilate a percentage, we can see France are second favourites at 31.5% and England trail well behind with just a 5.2% chance of winning the tournament.

Based on these figures, we can also confidently say Scotland will finish fourth, above Wales and Italy - who will collect yet another ‘Wooden Spoon’. There is an 84% chance they will finish bottom of the Six Nations table.

If we look at the chances of a Grand Slam, France and Ireland are once again favourites for this - making the opening game of the 2024 tournament even more crucial.

Whilst it is still more likely there will not be a Grand Slam winner (49.8% chance) Ireland are the most likely side to win every single game and complete back-to-back Grand Slams at 30.5%.

The opening game of the tournament in Paris is likely to decide not only the course of the Championship, but also the likelihood of a Grand Slam for either team. France have a 15.6% chance of winning the Grand Slam, a feat they managed in 2022 after beating Ireland 30-24.

England have got just a 3% chance of winning the Grand Slam, slightly better than Scotland who have a 1% chance of winning it.

What sets Moore's selection apart is his keen emphasis on club form, a nod to the clamors of numerous England fans over the past couple of years.

The revered former player has carefully considered the in-form players from the club scene, injecting a fresh and dynamic energy into his chosen lineup.

Explore the full XV below and brace yourself for an exciting chapter in England's rugby journey.

Moore wrote in The Telegraph: "George Furbank would probably edge this pick strictly on club form and this game would be ideal to see if the Northampton Saints full-back can make the decisive step into a starting role after his first series of England starts were inconclusive."

"I would go straight for Exeter’s Immanuel Feyi-Waboso. It would be his first cap, but opening against Italy is the least pressured of Six Nations debuts and, cynically, it would secure his allegiance for the forthcoming years.

"You can never choose a completely risk-free debut, but you will never have an understanding of any player’s potential unless you give them a chance."

Moore wrote in The Telegraph: |As Oscar Beard is also out through injury that leaves Fraser Dingwall, replacement call-up Max Ojomah or Daly. If Borthwick goes for the latter, it is the safe option but, given this is Italy, he should give Dingwall a start and just see where it goes."

Moore wrote in The Telegraph: "Picking half of the half-back picks is simple. Alex Mitchell’s club form has continued from his France 2023 heights, but it is which No 10 will play that signals Borthwick’s intent.

"Marcus Smith would suggest a Mitchell-Smith longer term partnership but there is no point preferring Smith over George Ford if the Quins No 10 is not given licence to play with alacrity and the inevitable mistakes that will come with that freer approach being tolerated, at least in the short term."

Moore wrote in The Telegraph: "As the best two scrummaging props, Joe Marler (if fit) and Dan Coleshould give England the absolutely necessary solid scrum ball, but it is at prop where England do not have flawless depth.

"Ellis Genge and Beno Obano are dynamic but not yet world-class scrummagers. On the tighthead there is no undisputed challenger to Cole, and this is something that England will need to solve to maintain set-piece solidity over a full game."

Moore wrote in The Telegraph: "They should continue their second-row partnership but both have to step up to consistent ball-carrying in the loose, as well as their primary roles in the scrum and line-out.

"This pairing has the feel of the Itoje-Kruis team that served England so well in the past. If they get anywhere near its effectiveness England will have a solid foundation for their pack."

6. Chandler Cunningham-South

"Alex Coles might be preferred for bulk and as a line-out option, but it would be interesting to see a conventionally balanced back row with Ben Earl at No 8 and Sam Underhill at openside flanker."

However, Ireland head coach Andy Farrell is looking to become the sixth, as he orchestrates the men from the Emerald Isle into defending their Six Nations Grand Slam. In total, the Six Nations has been won by 13 different head coaches, and we challenge you to name them all in the next six minutes!

Your time starts... now! Good luck!