England’s route to the 2027 Rugby World Cup final avoids Scotland

For the first time, 24 nations will compete in six groups of four, expanding the competition’s reach and diversity.

With the draw confirmed, England’s prospective route through the knockout stages — and their chances of going deep — can now be assessed. Here is their possible route to the final, and who they may face along the way.

England have been drawn with Wales, Tonga and Zimbabwe in Pool F at the 2027 Rugby World Cup. Although Wales are likely to strengthen by then, Steve Borthwick’s team will still be firm favourites to top the pool and advance to the round of 16 without major difficulty.

If England top their group, they will meet the Pool B runners-up in the round of 16. Pool B features South Africa, Italy, Georgia and Romania. The Springboks are expected to win the pool, meaning England would avoid the reigning back-to-back world champions, and the remaining teams are unlikely to pose a major threat.

Italy are the most probable candidates for second place. Although they are an improving side and far from a guaranteed victory, England should still be confident of beating them.

Italy’s defeat would set up a quarter-final against a runner-up from either Pool A or Pool E. Pool A includes the All Blacks and hosts Australia, raising the possibility of a rematch of the 2003 final between England and the Wallabies — a tricky prospect given Australia’s home advantage.

The Pool E runner-up is most likely to be Japan, though the USA or Samoa could also feature. Regardless, Australia are expected to progress, potentially paving the way for a thrilling showdown with a traditional rival.

If England can navigate the Wallabies without major setbacks, they should reach the semi-finals — at which point the outcome becomes far harder to predict. Their side of the draw will feature two third-placed teams and two pool winners, and it’s likely that one of those pool winners will progress to the semis.

That would mean facing the winner of either Pool C or Pool D. Argentina are favourites in Pool C, while Pool D could be topped by either Ireland or Scotland. Any of these sides would pose a significant test, but England would still back themselves to compete strongly against each of them.

And if they overcome their semi-final opponents, the most probable finalists waiting on the other side of the draw would be New Zealand or South Africa. Both are powerhouse rugby nations with exceptional squads, though South Africa have had the upper hand in recent years as back-to-back World Cup champions and current Rugby Championship holders.

That sets up the real possibility of a repeat of the 2019 final in Japan, where the Springboks claimed a 32–12 victory.