Supercomputer predicts ALL RESULTS for July's Nations Championship - England struggle on

Wednesday, 27 May 2026 at 10:39

byTom Sansom

This July, the rugby world witnesses the arrival of the first ever Nations Championship, with the world's 12 best teams set to compete across the 'Southern Series' in three blockbuster weekends.

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Gone are the Summer Tours of old, with this re-vamped new format combining the Summer international window with the November Series and silverware on the line.

There is also the added element of the new 'North vs South' rivalry, as the stars of the Six Nations take on the SANZAAR nations, along with Fiji and Japan, in the hunt fort the overall hemisphere bragging rights.

So, with the domestic club seasons soon set to culminate across the PREM, URC, Top 145 and Super Rugby, it will soon be time to pull on the national jerseys for the incoming Championship.

Once again, we've booted up the Super Computer at Rugby4Cast, to see who the current favourites are heading into the inaugural competition. Here's who the odds favour for the Nations Championship Summer Series.

SUPERCOMPUTER PREDICTS: 2026 NATIONS CHAMPIONSHIP - JULY SERIES

Round 1

Heavyweights Dominate as South Africa Set the Early Standard

The opening weekend immediately separates contenders from challengers. In Christchurch, New Zealand open with control rather than dominance, edging France with a 69% win probability backing them pre-match. Ireland follow suit in Sydney, where just a 20% win chance for Australia reflects a one-sided projection against the Wallabies on home soil.

South Africa deliver the clearest statement of intent, overwhelming England with an 89% win probability heading into the fixture, and backing it up with a commanding home performance in Johannesburg. Elsewhere, Fiji (75%) justify their strong lean against Wales, despite the recent rejuvenation of winning form for Steve Tandy's side. while Argentina (63%) edge Scotland in a tightly balanced contest. Italy (57%) narrowly overcome Japan in one of the most finely poised matches of the round.

Week 1 Predictions

New Zealand 30–24 France (NZ 69% / FRA 29%)
Italy 24–20 Japan (ITA 57% / JPN 41%)
Ireland 28–18 Australia (IRE 77% / AUS 20%)
Fiji 27–17 Wales (FIJ 75% / WAL 23%)
South Africa 35–16 England (SA 89% / ENG 9%)
Argentina 23–20 Scotland (ARG 63% / SCO 34%)

Round 2

Title Contenders separated from Mid-Table Chaos

Week 2 sharpens the tournament picture significantly. Ireland (92%) produce one of the most dominant projections of the round against Japan, which is scheduled for Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia. While South Africa (92%) again underline their status with a ruthless dismantling booked in with Scotland.

New Zealand (94%) are given the strongest backing of the week and comfortably dispatch Italy, while France (75%) respond to their opening defeat with authority against Australia. England’s campaign becomes increasingly unstable after Fiji (32%) hold the cards to an upset in a match. Whilst the model still leans towards England, the odds only narrowly favour Steve Borthwick's side in Everton.

Argentina (90%) continue their strong statistical projection against Wales, confirming their rise as a serious mid-table force after two rounds.

Week 2 Predictions

Fiji 21–29 England (ENG 65% / FIJ 32%)
New Zealand 38–13 Italy (NZ 94% / ITA 4%)
France 31–21 Australia (FRA 75% / AUS 23%)
Ireland 37–12 Japan (IRE 92% / JPN 6%)
South Africa 38–16 Scotland (SA 92% / SCO 6%)
Argentina 34–12 Wales (ARG 90% / WAL 7%)

Round 3

South Africa Pull Clear as Ireland Face First True Test

By Week 3, the simulation begins to split the field into tiers. South Africa (97%) produce the most dominant projection of the tournament so far, overwhelming Wales in Durban with near-certainty backing their home strength.

Ireland (70%) face their toughest assignment yet in Auckland, with New Zealand (70%) narrowly favoured in a heavyweight clash that could go either way, with the All Blacks iconic streak on the line at Eden Park. France (89%) are heavily backed to rebound strongly against Japan, while Australia (71%) are expected to overcome Italy in Perth.

Argentina (53%) and England (45%) produce one of the most finely balanced simulations of the entire round, with the model barely separating the sides. Scotland (63%) are slight favourites in a tight contest with Fiji (35%), reflecting how evenly matched the mid-tier battles remain.