Supercomputer Predicts Every Round One Nations Championship Result

Using thousands of simulations, the latest supercomputer predictions have forecast every opening fixture, with South Africa beginning as favourites to lift the trophy later this year. While the Springboks are expected to make a winning start against England, there are also intriguing predictions for heavyweight clashes involving New Zealand, France and Ireland.

Here's what the supercomputer expects from Round One.

The opening match of the tournament has the potential to the best. The world's second and third-ranked sides collide in Christchurch, with the supercomputer narrowly favouring New Zealand to begin their campaign with victory.

Despite France arriving with one of the strongest touring squads they've sent south in years, the All Blacks' home advantage appears decisive. The model gives New Zealand a 64% chance of victory, leaving Les Bleus with a still-respectable 34% chance of causing an upset.

A result here could prove pivotal in determining who tops their respective conference later in the competition.

The closest contest of the opening weekend comes in Tokyo, where Italy are given only a slight edge over hosts Japan.

The Azzurri hold just a 54% chance of victory compared to Japan's 43%, making this effectively a coin flip according to the simulations.

With both nations viewed as outsiders in their respective conferences, a victory here could be crucial in avoiding a bottom-two finish come November, as the Nations Championship heads up North for the Finals Weekend.

Ireland are heavily backed to spoil Australia's home opener in Sydney. Andy Farrell's side receive a commanding 75% chance of victory, with the Wallabies given just 23% despite home advantage.

Ireland proved throughout the 2026 Six Nations that they can overcome injury set-backs, with high-profile absentees also vacant from the Nations Championship. Captain Caelan Doris, and his Leinster teammates Andrew Porter and Tommy O'Brien have not left Dublin, yet Ireland are still backed to win the opener at the Aviva Stadium for a fifth-straight Test match win.

The prediction reflects the gap between the sides in recent seasons, although Australia's improving form under Joe Schmidt means they'll still fancy their chances of springing a surprise.With an underwhelming Super Rugby season in the rear-view mirror for the Australian clubs, a return to winning form in national gold would be the ultimate start to their Southern Series ambitions.

One of the biggest eye-catching predictions sees Fiji tipped to comfortably defeat Wales in Cardiff. The Pacific Islanders are handed a 68% probability of victory, leaving Wales with only a 30% chance of opening the tournament with a home win.

After another difficult season, the numbers suggest Wales face an uphill battle against one of world rugby's fastest-improving sides, despite the passionate home-field support of hosting Fiji's 'home match' at the Cardiff City Stadium.

England's Nations Championship campaign couldn't begin with a tougher assignment. Steve Borthwick's side travel to Ellis Park to face the reigning world champions, with the supercomputer giving South Africa a commanding 77% chance of victory.

England are afforded just a 22% chance of leaving Johannesburg with a famous win, making this the most one-sided fixture of the opening round.

The Springboks also begin the tournament as overwhelming favourites to top the Southern Conference, with the model giving them a remarkable 60% chance of finishing first.

The final fixture of the weekend sees Argentina strongly fancied to overcome Scotland in Córdoba. Los Pumas are given a 72% chance of victory, with Scotland receiving just 26%.

A home win would immediately strengthen Argentina's hopes of securing a top-three finish in the Southern Conference.

Looking beyond the opening weekend, the simulations make for fascinating reading.

Despite New Zealand being favourites to beat France this weekend, the supercomputer actually predicts Les Bleus to edge the race for top spot in their Northern Conference, with Fabien Galthié's side a 30% chance of finishing first. England (27%) and Ireland (26%) are expected to push them all the way, while Scotland remain outsiders on 15%.

In the Southern Conference, South Africa dominate the projections. The Springboks have a 60% chance of finishing top, with the All Blacks their closest challengers on 24%. Argentina are given a 14% chance, while Australia, Fiji and Japan are all viewed as long shots.

If those projections come true, the inaugural Nations Championship Final would see France face South Africa in the Allianz Stadium, Twickenham this November.

The model also forecasts Ireland vs New Zealand in the third-place play-off, Scotland vs Argentina for fifth place, Italy vs Australia for seventh, Wales vs Fiji for ninth, and, perhaps most surprisingly of all, England vs Japan in the battle to avoid finishing bottom of the inaugural Nations Championship.