Springboks vs All Blacks - 3rd Test: Preview, Predictions and Lineups

The Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry series reaches its pivotal third Test with South Africa and New Zealand locked at 1–1.

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South Africa and New Zealand collide at FNB Stadium in Soweto on Saturday evening, with the winner taking a decisive 2–1 series lead into next weekend’s finale in the United States.

The Springboks bounced back from their 33–16 defeat in the opening Test by beating the All Blacks 33–26 in Cape Town last weekend. Siya Kolisi, Jesse Kriel and Damian de Allende crossed for tries, while Cheslin Kolbe contributed 18 points from the tee as South Africa held off a late New Zealand fightback.

The All Blacks, meanwhile, will be determined to respond after surrendering a 10-point half-time deficit in Cape Town. They scored four tries through Cam Roigard, Damian McKenzie, Leroy Carter and Ardie Savea, but their discipline and lineout problems ultimately proved costly.

Now the rivalry moves to one of the biggest stages in South African rugby. FNB Stadium is expected to provide a spectacular atmosphere, with the Springboks anticipating a crowd of around 80,000 and the famous vuvuzelas making communication on the field particularly difficult. With the series perfectly poised, there is little separating the two sides. New Zealand know that a defeat would end their hopes of winning the series, while South Africa have the opportunity to move within one victory of claiming the overall prize.

Springboks vs. All Blacks Score Prediction

Boks Edge Soweto Thriller

Prediction: South Africa 30–27 New Zealand

This feels like the Test in which composure matters more than ever. Rassie Erasmus has opted for continuity after the Springboks’ impressive response in Cape Town, making four changes and one positional switch to his starting XV.

Ox Nche, Wilco Louw and Malcolm Marx return to the starting front row after their late swap out into the Bomb Squad replacements bench last time around. All the while. Cheslin Kolbe moves to fullback following Damian Willemse’s injury. Kurt-Lee Arendse then returns on the wing.

These decisions should give South Africa plenty of confidence. Erasmus believes the combinations used in Cape Town showed the composure required to execute the Springboks’ game plan, while the return of Arendse adds another explosive attacking option. The front-row changes are particularly intriguing. Erasmus explained that the alterations made for the second Test were influenced by the conditions in Cape Town, with Johannesburg’s elevated altitude allows him to revert to his preferred combination.

New Zealand have responded with three changes to their pack. Asafo Aumua replaces the experienced Codie Taylor at hooker, Sam Darry starts at lock, and Peter Lakai comes into the back row. Wallace Sititi provides impact from the bench. The All Blacks will also be celebrating Tupou Vaa’i’s 50th Test appearance. The lock has been a key figure in New Zealand’s pack and will reach the milestone on one of the biggest stages imaginable.

There is also a fascinating battle between the respective halfbacks, as Cam Roigard retains his nine jersey, after being one of New Zealand’s standout performers in the Cape Town defeat.

Series on the line: Winner Cannot lose the Four-Test Series

This is effectively a winner-takes-control Test.

The side that wins Saturday will take a 2–1 lead, meaning that the losing side cannot win the series following defeat in Soweto.

With unique craftsmanship, the Greatest Rivalry trophy has the ability to be split in two following a drawn series in Maryland.

Soweto history

The All Blacks have won both previous Tests between the teams at FNB Stadium, beating South Africa 29–22 in 2010 and 32–16 in 2012. The Springboks will be looking to erase that record on Saturday.

Boks’ recent dominance

South Africa have won six of the last eight meetings between the sides dating back to August 2023. New Zealand, however, won the first Test of this series convincingly before South Africa responded with their comeback in Cape Town.

Experience everywhere:

The Springboks’ starting XV contains a combined 958 Test caps, including 144 for Eben Etzebeth before Saturday’s match Etzebeth will become the first Springbok to reach 145 caps, extending his record as South Africa’s most-capped player.

A historic back row: Siya Kolisi, Pieter-Steph du Toit and Jasper Wiese will make their 17th Test start together, moving clear of the previous shared record held by Francois Louw, Willem Alberts and Duane Vermeulen.

The Arendse factor: Kurt-Lee Arendse returns to the starting XV after missing the second Test and brings an extraordinary scoring record. He has already scored 25 tries in his first 33 Tests.

Springboks lineup

Erasmus has resisted the temptation to make wholesale changes following the second-Test victory, instead sticking closely to the combination that delivered the series-levelling win. Kolbe’s move to fullback is the most notable alteration. The Stormers star has previous experience in the 15 jersey and his attacking ability should give South Africa another dangerous counter-attacking option.

Arendse’s return is equally significant. Erasmus specifically praised the winger’s try-scoring record and believes his pace can provide another weapon against the All Blacks’ defence. In the pack, Nche, Louw and Marx return to the starting front row, with Deon Fourie, Gerhard Steenekamp and Thomas du Toit moving to the replacements bench.

Captain Kolisi again leads a formidable loose trio alongside Pieter-Steph du Toit and Jasper Wiese, while Etzebeth will become the first Springbok to reach 145 Test caps.

Springboks lineup: (15-1) Kolbe; Arendse, Kriel, de Allende, Hooker; Feinberg-Mngomezulu, Reinach; Wiese, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Kolisi; Nortje, Etzebeth; Louw, Marx, Nche.

Replacements: Fourie, Steenekamp, Thomas du Toit, de Jager, Esterhuizen, Hanekom, van den Berg, Libbok.

All Blacks lineup

Dave Rennie has made three changes to his starting forwards as New Zealand look to respond immediately after their Cape Town defeat. Aumua takes over at hooker, with Taukei’aho providing impact from the bench. Darry comes into the second row, while Holland drops to the replacements. Lakai starts at blindside flanker, with Wallace Sititi also returning to the match-day squad.

Vaa’i’s 50th cap provides an additional storyline, while captain Ardie Savea will once again be central to New Zealand’s hopes of matching South Africa physically.’

There is plenty of attacking firepower behind the pack. Roigard starts at scrum-half after an influential second Test, Ruben Love continues at fly-half despite consistent pressure for the 10 shirt, and Jordie Barrett provides experience at inside centre. Will Jordan and Damian McKenzie remain major threats in the back three.

Rennie has stressed the importance of starting faster after New Zealand’s slow openings in the first two Tests. The All Blacks will need to avoid another early deficit if they are to take control of the match.

All Blacks lineup: (15-1) McKenzie; Jordan, Tupaea, Jordie Barrett, Carter; Love, Roigard; Savea, Jacobson, Lakai; Darry, Vaa’i; Lomax, Aumua, Bower.

Replacements: Taukei’aho, Numia, Newell, Holland, Sititi, Preston, Lienert-Brown, Moorby.

What Time Does Springboks vs. All Blacks Kick Off?

Location: Johannesburg, South Africa
Stadium: FNB Stadium
Date: Saturday, Sept. 5

Kick-off: 5:10 p.m. SAST / 4:10 p.m. BST / 03:10am Sunday 6th Sept.

Series: Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry — Third Test

The third Test kicks off at 17:10 local time at FNB Stadium in Johannesburg. The match is preceded by the first-ever meeting on South African soil between the Black Ferns and Springbok Women, which kicks off at 13:30.

How to Watch Springboks vs. All Blacks

UK & Ireland: Sky Sports

New Zealand: Sky Sports NZ

South Africa: SuperSport

Springboks vs All Blacks – 3rd Test: Preview, Predictions and Lineups