Round 3
South Africa Pull Clear as Ireland Face First True Test
By Week 3, the simulation begins to split the field into tiers. South Africa (97%) produce the most dominant projection of the tournament so far, overwhelming Wales in Durban with near-certainty backing their home strength.
Ireland (70%) face their toughest assignment yet in Auckland, with New Zealand (70%) narrowly favoured in a heavyweight clash that could go either way, with the All Blacks iconic streak on the line at Eden Park. France (89%) are heavily backed to rebound strongly against Japan, while Australia (71%) are expected to overcome Italy in Perth.
Argentina (53%) and England (45%) produce one of the most finely balanced simulations of the entire round, with the model barely separating the sides. Scotland (63%) are slight favourites in a tight contest with Fiji (35%), reflecting how evenly matched the mid-tier battles remain.
Week 3 Predictions
- Fiji 20–25 Scotland (SCO 63% / FIJ 35%)
- New Zealand 30–23 Ireland (NZ 70% / IRE 28%)
- Japan 16–38 France (FRA 89% / JPN 9%)
- Australia 27–18 Italy (AUS 71% / ITA 26%)
- South Africa 47–7 Wales (SA 97% / WAL 1%)
- Argentina 24–23 England (ARG 53% / ENG 45%)
PREDICTIONS OVERVIEW
Three rounds in, the supercomputer begins to stabilise its hierarchy with the first half of the Nations Championship complete.
South Africa (89–97% range dominance) look the most complete side in the competition
New Zealand and Ireland remain locked in a tight title battle, often separated by single-digit margins
France recover strongly after Week 1
Argentina emerge as the surprise statistical riser
England, Wales and Japan are predicted to struggle to convert competitiveness into wins
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