2019 Guinness Six Nations Round 4 Predictions

Wales sit top of the table with a two point gap over England, and face a stuttering Scotland in Edinburgh who look to restore some pride after a horror show in Paris two weeks ago. England go hard to send Italy home with a heavyweight set of backs looking to down the Azzurri at Twickenham, knowing that only a bonus point victory will do if they want to chase Wales into the final weekend.

And an underperforming Ireland try to catch the rest of the pack in our final Sunday fixture of the tournament, with an oddly entertaining France side making the trip to Dublin.

Arguably, this is the game that decides if Wales are winning the title or not despite the seismic clash against Ireland in 7 days time. We’ve seen how good they are at home and they have a good record against Ireland in Cardiff, and they’ve never lost to the Scots under Gatland, but this is a dangerous Scotland side who are desperate to right their wrongs after what was one of the worst away days in recent years in the last round. To suggest Gregor Townsend has undone all of Vern Cotter’s hard work is a harsh statement, and the calls from fans for him to be sacked are utterly stupid given we’re six months out from a World Cup. But you can’t argue this hasn’t been a woeful spring for the dark blues. The inconsistency in selection compared to Wales who have been solid throughout, and the poor luck with injuries have blighted what started as a bright campaign, but this weekend will be their biggest test and a win against Wales would be off the richter scale.

Gatland’s militia have been sensational to watch. Gareth Anscombe has stepped up big time and retained his place with the idea of Dan Biggar bringing a late burst of power from the bench proving too tempting to resist for Warren’s final trip to Edinburgh with the Welsh. The household names of Alun Wyn Jones, Ken Owens, and Jonathan Davies have excelled as per usual. The fact that the only change they made to the starting XV was an enforced swap for Cory Hill through injury shows just how much faith Gatland has in his side to get the job done, something which appears to be slightly different for Townsend. Ali Price starts at nine ahead of captain Greig Laidlaw, and that could either prove fatal, or devastating for Wales. Price brings a much quicker game, but Laidlaw’s accuracy from the tee is a huge loss when left on the bench. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him for more than the final 20 should the game go down to the wire. Hamish Watson returns from a fractured hand but only earns a place on the bench, but again he brings a huge weapon to the back-row in the closing stages. 

As much as I feel confident that Scotland can give the Welsh a run for their money after their performance two years ago, I cannot see them overcoming this powerhouse Gatland has created. The accuracy and the power his side bring is Grand Slam worthy, and if they run another 34 phases for a try like last weekend, I dread to think how many of Townsend’s men will end up on the injury list, which is already eye-watering. 

Predicted result: Wales by 10

We all want Italy to win a game. Be honest, you’re feeling sorry for them now, because they’ve put in such a good shift which has availed to nothing this tournament once again despite getting better and better. But Eddie’s men know they can still bag the title if Wales slip up and they get the bonus point victory, which I won’t be surprised to see with their selection of backs. Joe Cokanasiga and Ben Te’o join the party, and that super heavyweight addition is something Italy will have a nightmare containing. The brutish nature of England’s side will wear and tear, so if Italy come up with a cunning plan to prevent that then I absolutely have to see it because Conor O’Shea will have to turn water to wine and then some. 

The thought of Wales slipping up seems absurd given Scotland’s form, but realistically, it’s England with the easier run of fixtures, since they host the Scots on the 16th and Wales have to deal with a hurting Ireland. You’d put your money on England to win if both sides were level on points, but we all know that the showdown in Cardiff has done it’s damage to the rose and the 2016 Grand Slam winners will need a miracle to overtake Wales. The importance on bonus points has never been more crucial, hence the insanely good choice of backs, and if they take a look back to three weeks ago against France, they’ll know how quickly they can get on the front foot and take control of a game. Give Jonny May a bit of space, and Italy will concede. Allow Kyle Sinckler to thunder through, and someone’s going home bandaged up. 

It’s all well and good for Italy fans to feel confident with Sergio Parisse back in the mix, but England are out for blood and then some, and overcoming a side who are being made to work for their Grand Slam is never going to be easy. I won’t be shocked if my prediction is smashed to bits and England hit 30 plus.

Predicted result: England by 15

This game has far more significance than the table suggests. France have a chance to really prove things are turning around for them by backing up their big win against Scotland, from which they’ve kept the same team to no surprise. Ireland on the other hand, who it feels like we haven’t watched play in Dublin for an eternity since that England game, have the chance to really snatch the title back should pigs fly and both Wales and England lose their games this weekend. I won’t get carried away and suggest Ireland winning the title, but they will have the belief that they still can, as the title can be snatched with four wins and a scattering of bonus points. But at the same time, Ireland will know how big a test this will be despite the home advantage. Even though five out of the first nine games have been won by the away side, and Ireland were one of the teams to lose at home, the Aviva Stadium is relentless and not an easy venue to silence.

42 phases and a 45 metre drop goal did the job last year, but I don’t think we’ll be seeing anything near as close as that this time round. Ireland will know what they need to do to get the job done and in terms of squad strength, they’re as good as they get despite the absence of Devin Toner and the surprise omission of the war hammer that is Sean O’Brien. Their squad felt like it was hitting the panic button last round, with most of the regulars giving Italy a good contest in Rome. Looking back on the way they played, it’s a good job the old boys stepped out at the Stadio Olympico, otherwise they might not be in as fortuitous a position as they are now. 

Brunel knows he’s under pressure, and he’ll be aware of the demanding French public breathing down his neck on Sunday, so good luck to him trying to get the result he needs in Dublin. But I have a suspicion we’re going to get a taste of the Ireland of 2018 that we’ve missed this year. The team that went 42 flawless phases to bag a win, the team that downed the All Blacks, the team that proved time and time again they can get the job done. Schmidt won’t need to do much to fire this team up, they know what’s at stake, let’s just see which Ireland turns up. 

Predicted result: Ireland by 5