Supercomputer 2026 Six Nations Predictions: Grand Slam triumph
Rugby NewsMonday, 15 December 2025 at 14:21
The Six Nations rarely lacks drama, but according to supercomputer projections, this year’s championship could be decided by the finest of margins at the very top — even if the final table suggests a clear winner.
Using forecast probabilities and predicted scorelines for every fixture, the model outlines a tournament shaped by narrow head-to-heads between the big three, Scotland firmly competitive but just short, and Italy showing enough progress to avoid the wooden spoon.
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Early Rounds: Tight Margins and Early Statements
The opening match between France and Ireland in Paris sets the tone. France are given a narrow edge and are predicted to win 22–19, immediately placing Ireland under pressure but earning them a losing bonus point.
Scotland are expected to edge Italy in Rome, while England make a major early statement with a convincing home win over Wales. By the end of round one, the table already reflects a familiar hierarchy — but with warning signs of how tight the title race may become.
Predicted Results – Match by Match
Round 1
- France 22–19 Ireland (Paris)
- Scotland 22–17 Italy (Rome)
- England 34–10 Wales (London)
Round 2
- Ireland 41–18 Italy (Dublin)
- England 23–21 Scotland (Edinburgh)
- France 41–18 Wales (Cardiff)
Middle Rounds: Ireland and England Chase France
Ireland’s home dominance shows clearly in the predictions. Comfortable wins over Italy and Wales in Dublin keep them firmly in the hunt, but narrow defeats to both France and England — each by less than a converted try — prove costly.
England’s campaign follows a similar pattern. Strong victories over Wales, Italy and Scotland are offset by a close defeat in Paris. The supercomputer repeatedly flags England’s biggest games as “could go either way”, underlining how small the margins are between first and second place.
Scotland pick up two narrow losing bonus points in defeats to England and France, reflecting a side that remains competitive but struggles to convert close games into wins.
Round 3
- England 24–22 Ireland (London)
- Scotland 35–17 Wales (Cardiff)
- France 38–17 Italy (Lille)
Round 4
- Ireland 38–14 Wales (Dublin)
- France 25–24 Scotland (Edinburgh)
- England 35–16 Italy (Rome)
Final Weekend: France Finish the Job
Super Saturday brings clarity. Ireland are predicted to beat Scotland comfortably, while Italy edge past Wales in Cardiff in one of the few fixtures where the Azzurri are favoured.
The championship, however, is decided in Paris. France are forecast to beat England 24–20, completing a clean sweep of their rivals and sealing a Grand Slam in front of a home crowd.
Round 5 (Super Saturday)
- Ireland 30–12 Scotland (Dublin)
- Italy 25–22 Wales (Cardiff)
- France 24–20 England (Paris)
Predicted Final Six Nations Table
(Including losing bonus points; no try bonus points assumed)
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | Bonus Pts | Total Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20 |
| 2 | England | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 17 |
| 3 | Ireland | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 4 | Scotland | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Italy | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| 6 | Wales | 5 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
Full 2026 Six Nations Fixtures
ROUND 1
Thursday 5th February 2026
- France v Ireland – Stade de France, Paris – 8:10pm
Saturday 7th February 2026
- Italy v Scotland – Stadio Olimpico, Rome – 2:10pm
- England v Wales – Allianz Stadium, Twickenham – 4:40pm
ROUND 2
Saturday 14th February 2026
- Ireland v Italy – Aviva Stadium, Dublin – 2:10pm
- Scotland v England – Scottish Gas Murrayfield Stadium, Edinburgh – 4:40pm
Sunday 15th February 2026
- Wales v France – Principality Stadium, Cardiff – 3:10pm
ROUND 3
Saturday 21st February 2026
- England v Ireland – Allianz Stadium, Twickenham – 2:10pm
- Wales v Scotland – Principality Stadium, Cardiff – 4:40pm
Sunday 22nd February 2026
- France v Italy – Decathlon Arena, Lille – 3:10pm
ROUND 4
Friday 6th March 2026
- Ireland v Wales – Aviva Stadium, Dublin – 8:10pm
Saturday 7th March 2026
- Scotland v France – Scottish Gas Murrayfield Stadium, Edinburgh – 2:10pm
- Italy v England – Stadio Olimpico, Rome – 4:40pm
ROUND 5
Saturday 14th March 2026
- Ireland v Scotland – Aviva Stadium, Dublin – 2:10pm
- Wales v Italy – Principality Stadium, Cardiff – 4:40pm
- France v England – Stade de France, Paris – 8:10pm
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- Jordie Barrett over Damian de Allende is far from being correct. The hype around Dupont is also overreaching, he's probably 4th in the world and has been since the 2023 WC. He also avoids certain matchups which is strange. The rest of the list is pretty good apart from minor subjective biases.JasonMarlow16-09-2026
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