Supercomputer predicts 2026 Six Nations - With bad news for England fans

Kicking off in just under a month on February 5th with a mouth-watering opener between France and Ireland, the tournament immediately sets the tone. It feels fitting that the reigning champions will welcome their closest recent rivals in Paris, given how dramatic the 2025 championship proved to be.

On that unforgettable Super Saturday, Ireland, England and France all topped the table at different moments before Les Bleus finally sealed the title at the Stade de France. Remarkably, they did so without Antoine Dupont, whose campaign was cruelly cut short by an ACL injury against Ireland. His return for 2026 is one of the biggest storylines of the championship.

With Dupont back pulling the strings, France are understandably the favourites. Sports4Cast give them a 36% chance of lifting the trophy and a 13% chance of completing a Grand Slam. Those numbers reflect both their depth and their ability to peak when it matters most. France have learned how to win tight championships, not just play beautiful rugby, and that maturity could be decisive once again.

Ireland sit just behind them, with an 11% chance of a Grand Slam and a 30% chance of winning the title outright. Andy Farrell’s side remain one of the most consistent teams in world rugby, but there is a lingering question about physical and mental fatigue.

A long season, capped by a demanding Lions tour that featured a strong Irish contingent, could take its toll. Still, writing Ireland off would be foolish; their systems, leadership and resilience ensure they will be right in the mix until the final weekend.

England, meanwhile, are predicted as the third-most likely champions, with a 22% chance of winning and a 10% shot at a Grand Slam. Like Ireland, they are coming off a year heavily influenced by Lions involvement.

The upside is renewed confidence and cohesion among key players; the downside is whether they can sustain that intensity through another relentless Six Nations campaign. The final match of the tournament, France versus England on 14 March, already feels like it could be decisive.

Behind the leading trio, Scotland are forecast to occupy their familiar middle ground. Strong enough to challenge anyone on their day, but not quite consistent enough to sustain a title push, they are predicted to finish clear of the bottom two yet a step below the top three. It’s a frustrating place to be, but also one that keeps Scottish fans dreaming of an upset or two along the way.

At the other end of the table, the outlook is more sobering. Wales are heavy favourites to finish last, with a daunting 72% chance of picking up the Wooden Spoon for a second consecutive year. While there are tentative signs of optimism under Steve Tandy, they still look a shadow of their former selves.

Italy, by contrast, continue to show steady improvement and are given a 28% chance of finishing bottom. Their growing competitiveness could once again pile pressure on Wales and make every clash between the two feel decisive.

As the championship enters its 132nd season – and the 27th as the Six Nations – the ingredients are there for another classic.