Supercomputer predicts Challenge Cup Round of 16 results

With heavyweights like Munster and La Rochelle entering the competition, the knockout stage promises intensity and quality. From tight contests to potential blowouts, here’s how the numbers suggest each clash could unfold.

The knockout stages open in Galway with a historic first meeting between these URC rivals. Connacht, chasing a maiden title in their 14th knockout appearance, bring strong attacking threats through Sam Gilbert and Paul Boyle.

The Sharks arrive as defending champions and will rely on their physical edge and experience in big games.

Connacht are given a 72% chance of victory compared to 25% for the Sharks, highlighting the impact of home advantage and stronger recent form. The hosts will likely look to move the ball quickly and stretch the defence, while the Sharks aim to keep things tight early on.

If Connacht can control territory and tempo, they should gradually pull clear as the game progresses. The Sharks may stay competitive in the first half, but over time the pressure could tell, with the match expected to finish around 29–18.

Montpellier come into this all-French clash as top seeds after a flawless pool stage and strong domestic performances. Their forward dominance and attacking depth make them one of the standout teams in the competition.

Perpignan arrive with confidence after a win over Toulon but face a much tougher challenge here.

The hosts are heavy favourites, holding an 87% chance of victory compared to just 11% for Perpignan. That gap reflects Montpellier’s consistency and ability to control matches through both physicality and structure.

Expect Montpellier to dictate the pace from early on, building pressure through phases and converting chances efficiently. If they maintain that control, the game could open up late, with a convincing result in the region of 31–14 looking likely.

This heavyweight clash at Sandy Park features two former Champions Cup winners, both comfortable in high-pressure knockout rugby.

Exeter secured home advantage through a solid pool campaign, while Munster bring experience and resilience after dropping into the competition.

Exeter are slight favourites with a 63% chance of winning compared to Munster’s 35%, suggesting a tight and competitive contest. Both sides are likely to rely on structured play, kicking battles, and strong defensive organisation.

Momentum could shift several times, and discipline will be crucial in key moments. With home support behind them, Exeter may just edge it late on, with a narrow outcome such as 26–22 appearing the most likely scenario.

A repeat of the 2023 quarter-final sees Benetton hosting Cardiff once again, with the Italian side entering in excellent form. They topped their pool with four wins and have been among the most dangerous attacking teams in the competition so far.

Benetton are given a 73% chance of victory compared to 25% for Cardiff, reflecting both their consistency and home advantage. Cardiff qualified with solid performances but now face a more demanding away test.

If Benetton can impose their tempo and maintain attacking pressure, they should gradually take control of the match. Cardiff may remain competitive early, but over time a 27–19 type of result looks a realistic outcome.

Ulster host Ospreys in Belfast in a clash between familiar URC opponents, with the home side coming in after topping their pool. Ospreys, meanwhile, have recent knockout experience and will be confident of competing strongly.

Ulster hold a 78% chance of victory compared to 20% for Ospreys, underlining their stronger form and the advantage of playing at home. Their balanced approach, combining set-piece strength and attacking structure, should give them an edge.

The early stages may be closely contested, but if Ulster maintain pressure and limit errors, they should begin to pull away. That could lead to a solid win, with a projected scoreline of around 28–17.

Newcastle welcome two-time Champions Cup winners La Rochelle in a first-ever meeting between the sides. The hosts performed well in the pool stage, but this represents a significant step up in opposition quality.

La Rochelle are strong favourites with a 75% chance of victory compared to Newcastle’s 22%. Their physical dominance, particularly in the forwards, is likely to play a major role in controlling the match.

Newcastle may show determination at home, especially early on, but sustaining that level against such opposition will be difficult. If La Rochelle execute effectively, they should pull clear, with a likely outcome around 26–13.

Stade Français host Dragons in Paris aiming to build on a strong pool stage in which they secured three wins. The French side look well balanced and will be confident of progressing further in the competition.

They are given a 79% chance of victory compared to 19% for Dragons, reflecting their superior depth and home advantage. Dragons qualified with solid performances but may struggle to impose themselves here.

If Stade Français control territory and maintain attacking pressure, they should gradually create scoring opportunities. Over time, that could translate into a comfortable win, with a scoreline in the region of 30–16 expected.

The round concludes in Parma with what appears to be the most evenly matched fixture. Zebre have shown real improvement with three pool wins, while Pau arrive in strong domestic form after competing in the TOP 14 and Champions Cup.

Zebre hold a narrow edge with a 50% chance of victory compared to Pau’s 48%, highlighting how tight this contest is expected to be. Both sides are capable of taking control for periods.

Momentum is likely to swing throughout, and small moments could prove decisive. With home advantage potentially making the difference, a narrow result such as 22–18 in Zebre’s favour looks a plausible outcome.