South Africa's 21-19 defeat to France on Friday night has offered a worrying glimpse of what could await them at the 2027 Rugby World Cup.
Rassie Erasmus is chasing a third successive world title in Australia, but the draw has done the Springboks few favours.
The world champions could face New Zealand in the quarter-finals before another meeting with France in the last four.
And after Friday's defeat in Paris, that prospect looks even less appealing.
Springboks' nightmare World Cup route
South Africa have been drawn alongside Italy, Georgia and Romania in Pool B.
Erasmus will expect his side to finish top, although Italy could provide a decent test.
The expanded 24-team tournament also brings a new round of 16, meaning the Springboks must win four knockout matches to lift the Webb Ellis Cup.
That extra fixture should be manageable if they win their group.
What follows is another matter entirely.
Assuming the leading seeds progress as expected, South Africa would face their greatest rivals, New Zealand, in the quarter-finals.
Victory there could set up a semi-final against France, with England, Ireland or Argentina among the possible opponents in the final.
South Africa's potential route to the final:
- 🇮🇹 Pool stage: Italy, Georgia and Romania
- 🏉 Round of 16: Third-place qualifier
- 🇳🇿 Quarter-final: New Zealand
- 🇫🇷 Semi-final: France
- 🏆 Final: Potentially England, Ireland or Argentina
These are projected opponents, not confirmed fixtures. The route assumes the leading seeds win their pools and progress.
France defeat provides timely warning
Friday's Nations Championship clash in Paris showed just how difficult another meeting with Les Bleus could be.
France raced into a 21-7 half-time lead, with Aaron Grandidier-Nkanang, Théo Attissogbe and Louis Bielle-Biarrey all crossing.
The Springboks fought back through Cobus Reinach and Malcolm Marx, despite losing Jasper Wiese to a 20-minute red card.
But Manie Libbok missed a conversion that would have levelled the scores, and France held on for a famous victory.
It was their first home win over South Africa since 2005.
The result also came just over three years after the Springboks knocked France out of their home World Cup, winning a remarkable quarter-final 29-28.
Another meeting in Australia would carry plenty of history.
Springboks have done it before
Of course, South Africa have already shown they can survive a brutal knockout draw.
Their 2023 triumph included three victories by a single point.
They edged France 29-28 in the quarter-finals, beat England 16-15 in the semi-finals and then defeated New Zealand 12-11 in the final.
Three matches. Three points between them.
The Springboks also became the first nation to win four men's Rugby World Cups.
Now they have the chance to make it three titles in a row, something no country has previously achieved.
But with New Zealand and France potentially standing between them and the final, Erasmus might need another extraordinary knockout run.
And Friday night's defeat suggests there will be little margin for error.
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The tournament takes place in Australia from 1 October to 13 November 2027, with 24 nations divided into six pools of four.
Pool A
- 🇳🇿 New Zealand
- 🇦🇺 Australia
- 🇨🇱 Chile
- 🇭🇰 Hong Kong China
Pool B
- 🇿🇦 South Africa
- 🇮🇹 Italy
- 🇬🇪 Georgia
- 🇷🇴 Romania
Pool C
- 🇦🇷 Argentina
- 🇫🇯 Fiji
- 🇪🇸 Spain
- 🇨🇦 Canada
Pool D
- ☘️ Ireland
- 🥃 Scotland
- 🇺🇾 Uruguay
- 🇵🇹 Portugal
Pool E
- 🇫🇷 France
- 🇯🇵 Japan
- 🇺🇸 USA
- 🇼🇸 Samoa
Pool F
- 🌹 England
- 🐉 Wales
- 🇹🇴 Tonga
- 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe
The top two teams from each pool, plus the four best third-placed sides, will advance to the round of 16.
From there, it is straight knockout rugby through to the final in Sydney on 13 November.
