2. Wales and Scotland Don’t Get Out Of Their Pools
A second bold prediction is that two home nations sides won’t get any further than the pool stages of the 2023 Rugby World Cup. Despite being the fifth ranked side in the world, Scotland have been drafted into an unmistakable ‘Pool of Death’, with Ireland and the Springboks expected favourites to progress out of Pool B. Gregor Townsend’s side have become a casualty of the competition’s early draw, which took place in December 2020, over 13 months before the tournament kicks off.
Since then, Ireland have surpassed the Springboks and progressed into becoming the number one ranked team in the world. And Scotland, who finished the 2020 Six Nations a lowly fourth, have gone on to retain their Calcutta Cup crown over that year’s Triple Crown Champions, England. There is no denying that the Pool Stage draw should have taken place closer to the start of the tournament, with Scotland forming the collateral damage of the organiser’s planning.
Scotland will also be without their iconic fullback Stuart Hogg, who shocked rugby fans north of the border with his unexpected retirement ahead of the Rugby World Cup. Wales find themselves in a similar state, as numerous veteran leaders have either stepped away from the Rugby World Cup squad, or can’t compete due to unfortunate injuries. Warren Gatland’s ranks have dwindled in the absence of legendary stalwart’s Alun Wyn Jones, Justin Tipuric and Rhys Webb, who voluntarily withdrew from the wider Rugby World Cup training squad.
Wales’ 2023 Six Nations captain Ken Owens misses out on the competition due to an unfortunate back injury, with Gatland’s options thinning out in the number two jersey, as Ryan Elias and Dewi Lake are also currently injured. This transitional Wales squad has been drawn into Pool C, with Australia, Fiji, Georgia and Portugal, with all but the Portuguese presenting viable threats to Gatland’s squad.
Fiji are currently sat at ninth in the world, which is a spot above Wales in the World Rugby rankings. Gatland will no doubt have his eyes glued to the Pacific Islanders this Saturday, as they take on England. Wales drew a two match series one-win-apiece with Steve Borthwick’s side earlier this Summer, they ran out victors in Cardiff, yet could not get the job done at Twickenham, with England at one stage going down to just 12 men.
Fiji look dangerous at the moment, coming in hot off the back of a clean sweep against Samoa, Tonga and Japan for the 2023 Pacific Nations Cup. Australia enter the competition a rung above at eighth in the world, and Eddie Jones’ men are seeking retribution for a winless Rugby Championship campaign.
Georgia also present a genuine claim to progress out of the pool, having recorded a victory over Wales as recently as the 2022 Autumn Nations Series. With four contenders to progress out of Pool C, we believe that Wales will just miss out on the knock-out stages, with the Wallabies and Flying Fijians progressing through to the next round.