Supercomputer predicts matches this weekend – more bad news for Wales

Sports4Cast have crunched the numbers using their advanced predictive algorithm to forecast each result — offering insights into where the weekend’s biggest wins and upsets might come.

Ireland are back home at the Aviva Stadium, hosting Japan in what promises to be a lively, attacking contest. Andy Farrell’s side return from a dramatic clash with New Zealand in Chicago, eager to reassert control after a game of two halves. Many of Ireland’s stars formed the core of the British & Irish Lions’ series-winning squad in Australia, while others impressed in summer wins over Portugal and Georgia. Their blend of power and precision has been impressive, though composure late on remains a focus.

Japan arrive in Europe with plenty to prove after a mixed year. They showed flashes of quality during their summer series — including a win over Wales — but recent defeats to Australia and South Africa underline the challenge ahead. Ireland, dominant the last time these sides met in Dublin, are strong favourites with a 95% chance of winning but will be wary of Japan’s pace and unpredictability.

Scotland head into their biggest test of the Quilter Nations Series as the All Blacks return to Murrayfield for the first time in three years. Gregor Townsend’s side warmed up with an 85–0 demolition of the USA — a useful tune-up rather than a true measure — but confidence is high. Rising talents like Liam McConnell impressed, while veterans such as Finn Russell and Matt Fagerson will again shoulder leadership duties.

New Zealand arrive battle-hardened from their win over Ireland in Chicago, showing their trademark composure in the closing stages. Injuries to Scott and Jordie Barrett may test their depth, yet their bench remains formidable. History offers Scotland little comfort — 30 defeats and two draws in 120 years — but there’s quiet belief this could be different. The hosts hold a 22% chance of victory, while the All Blacks, at 75%, remain clear favourites. Still, Murrayfield dares to dream.

England continue their campaign at the Allianz Stadium on Saturday, facing Fiji in what promises to be a thrilling clash of styles. Steve Borthwick’s side come in buoyed by a commanding 25–7 victory over Australia, extending their winning streak to eight matches after a successful summer tour of Argentina and the USA. Confidence is high, and England’s power game, precision, and defensive discipline have made them formidable at home.

Fiji, however, arrive with flair and fearlessness. Fresh from lifting their seventh Pacific Nations Cup, Mick Byrne’s side will look to unleash their trademark offloads and athletic brilliance — traits that nearly toppled England in the 2023 World Cup quarter-final, months after their historic win at Twickenham. The ‘Flying Fijians’ remain everyone’s favourite second team, and though England are 88% favourites, Fiji’s 9% chance still carries danger for a side that dares to play without fear.

At the same time as England's match, Italy also play in Rome, where Australia look to bounce back from their opening defeat to England and avenge the painful loss they suffered in Florence three years ago — their first ever defeat to Italy. That 28–27 result in 2022 marked a turning point for the Azzurri, whose resurgence under Gonzalo Quesada has seen them play with greater confidence, control, and flair. Players like Ange Capuozzo and the Cannone brothers bring both spark and steel, and their impressive turnover stats in 2025 highlight a side growing in maturity.

For the Wallabies, history still leans heavily in their favour — 20 wins from 21 meetings — and with key names such as Len Ikitau, Will Skelton, and James O’Connor returning, Joe Schmidt’s men are expected to respond strongly. Australia remain 65% favourites, while Italy’s 32% chance reflects a side capable of another upset on home soil.

A blockbuster awaits at the Stade de France as the reigning world champions, South Africa, return to the scene of their epic 29–28 World Cup quarter-final win over Les Bleus. France have turned that heartbreak into motivation, winning 15 of their last 16 games at home and averaging more than 30 points per match since that narrow defeat. With Romain Ntamack back steering the attack and Damian Penaud chasing a record-breaking try, the hosts are primed for revenge.

The Springboks, though, remain the benchmark of resilience. Fresh from a 61–7 demolition of Japan, Siya Kolisi’s men travel to Paris having won eight of their last nine against France. Their power game, anchored by Eben Etzebeth and bolstered by emerging talent Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, will again test French flair. Statistically, it’s tight — South Africa hold a 59% chance of victory, while France’s 38% reflects their formidable home form and burning motivation.

Redemption is the theme in Cardiff as Wales host Argentina at the Principality Stadium, looking to avenge their 29–17 World Cup quarter-final defeat two years ago. A refreshed coaching team and a crop of young leaders — including captain Jac Morgan, try-scorer Louis Rees-Zammit, and powerful hooker Dewi Lake — bring renewed optimism after ending an 18-match losing streak with victory over Japan in July. Wales’ defensive resilience, second only to Ireland in this year’s Six Nations, will again be key.

Argentina, though, arrive with their trademark flair and confidence. Their recent Rugby Championship wins over New Zealand and Australia underline their danger, while Bautista Delguy and Rodrigo Isgró provide serious firepower out wide. Los Pumas’ counter-attack stunned Wales in 2023, and they’ll look to repeat that trick. Still, the hosts will be eager to set things right — Wales have a 17% chance of victory, with Argentina 80% favourites in Cardiff.