Supercomputer predicts matches this weekend – with good news for England against Australia

From England’s bid to reclaim dominance against Australia to Ireland’s rekindled rivalry with New Zealand, each contest offers its own intrigue — and the forecasts point to a thrilling weekend of international rugby.

England kick off their autumn campaign at Twickenham with an Ella Mobbs Trophy clash against Australia — a fixture that never lacks intensity. Sports4Cast gives England an 81% chance of victory, predicting a 30–18 win for Steve Borthwick’s men. After a narrow defeat to the Wallabies last year, England will be eager to set the record straight and show they’re back among rugby’s elite.

New faces have injected pace and purpose into the side, and recent wins over Argentina and France have hinted at a revival. Yet, England haven’t claimed a Six Nations crown since 2020 or beaten a top southern hemisphere team in over two years — proof there’s still a climb ahead. Australia, still rebuilding, won’t make it easy, but at home, England’s power and precision should prove decisive.

It’s been ten years since Japan stunned the rugby world with their “Miracle of Brighton”, toppling South Africa in one of the sport’s greatest shocks. The Springboks haven’t forgotten — and they’ll be determined to make sure history doesn’t repeat itself at Wembley.

Siya Kolisi’s men are overwhelming favourites with a 95% chance of victory and a projected 46–11 scoreline. The reigning world champions have twice beaten Japan since that 2015 heartbreak, including a quarter-final triumph en route to lifting the Webb Ellis Cup in 2019.

Still, the Springboks are approaching this one with respect. Japan pushed Australia close last week, and Kolisi has warned against complacency. “They’re a great side and deserve our full attention,” he said. Expect South Africa to dominate physically — but Japan’s spirited play could ensure another lively contest before the Boks’ class tells.

Scotland open their Nations Series campaign at Murrayfield with what looks a comfortable assignment against the USA. Gregor Townsend’s side are firm favourites — 95% likely to win — with a predicted scoreline of 49–5.

With many players unavailable due to club commitments, Townsend has turned to his Glasgow and Edinburgh regulars. Captain Stafford McDowall leads a side featuring several young debutants, while the spotlight will be on Duhan van der Merwe, who celebrates his 50th cap. The winger has become a talisman for Scotland, his try-scoring exploits and dynamic runs a constant threat.

This game offers a valuable platform for newcomers like Liam McConnell and Harri Morris to make their mark. For the Eagles, it’s a steep challenge, but one that could help gauge their progress. Scotland should cruise, but Townsend will be more interested in rhythm, depth, and discovering who can step up ahead of tougher tests to come.

Soldier Field, Chicago — the scene of Ireland’s historic first-ever win over the All Blacks in 2016 — hosts another chapter of this now fierce rivalry. Sports4Cast has it almost even, but slightly favours New Zealand with a 51% chance and a predicted 24–23 win.

Since that landmark day nine years ago, the nations have traded blows regularly, with Ireland’s fearless approach transforming what was once a one-sided fixture. Andy Farrell’s side return to the U.S. eager to recapture that same spirit, though injuries have forced some reshuffling, with Jack Crowley starting at fly-half and Dan Sheehan captaining.

For the All Blacks, Beauden Barrett’s return adds star power, and Scott Robertson will be out to stamp his authority. Expect a fast, tactical battle — Ireland’s cohesion versus New Zealand’s flair.