Six Nations Super Computer gives Ireland a nearly 50% chance of winning the Grand Slam for back-to-back years, with England given just a 3% chance to bring the Grand Slam to Twickenham.
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Ireland have a whopping 61.5% chance of winning the Six Nations and a 49.6% chance of winning another Grand Slam, according to data analysts.
A team of expert statisticians at Grosvenor Sport have created a model which can simulate the result of every Six Nations game 1,000 times to give the most accurate result possible.
Using the current World Rugby rankings, as well as Home Advantage and Bonus Point likelihood, Ireland won the tournament 615 times out of 1,000 – meaning they have a 61.5% chance of winning the tournament.
Using these raw figures to assimilate a percentage, we can see France are second favourites at 31.5% and England trail well behind with just a 5.2% chance of winning the tournament.
Based on these figures, we can also confidently say Scotland will finish fourth, above Wales and Italy – who will collect yet another ‘Wooden Spoon’. There is an 84% chance they will finish bottom of the Six Nations table.
If we look at the chances of a Grand Slam, France and Ireland are once again favourites for this – making the opening game of the 2024 tournament even more crucial.
Whilst it is still more likely there will not be a Grand Slam winner (49.8% chance) Ireland are the most likely side to win every single game and complete back-to-back Grand Slams at 30.5%.
The opening game of the tournament in Paris is likely to decide not only the course of the Championship, but also the likelihood of a Grand Slam for either team. France have a 15.6% chance of winning the Grand Slam, a feat they managed in 2022 after beating Ireland 30-24.
England have got just a 3% chance of winning the Grand Slam, slightly better than Scotland who have a 1% chance of winning it.
Rugby quiz:
“Drop Genge, Steward” – Brian Moore picks his England XV for 2024 Six Nations opener
What sets Moore’s selection apart is his keen emphasis on club form, a nod to the clamors of numerous England fans over the past couple of years.
The revered former player has carefully considered the in-form players from the club scene, injecting a fresh and dynamic energy into his chosen lineup.
Explore the full XV below and brace yourself for an exciting chapter in England’s rugby journey.
BRIAN MOORE’S ENGLAND XV
BACK-THREE:
15. George Furbank
14. Tommy Freeman
11. Immanuel Feyi-Waboso
Moore wrote in The Telegraph: “George Furbank would probably edge this pick strictly on club form and this game would be ideal to see if the Northampton Saints full-back can make the decisive step into a starting role after his first series of England starts were inconclusive.”
“I would go straight for Exeter’s Immanuel Feyi-Waboso. It would be his first cap, but opening against Italy is the least pressured of Six Nations debuts and, cynically, it would secure his allegiance for the forthcoming years.
“You can never choose a completely risk-free debut, but you will never have an understanding of any player’s potential unless you give them a chance.”
CENTRES:
13. Henry Slade
12. Fraser Dingwall
Moore wrote in The Telegraph: |As Oscar Beard is also out through injury that leaves Fraser Dingwall, replacement call-up Max Ojomah or Daly. If Borthwick goes for the latter, it is the safe option but, given this is Italy, he should give Dingwall a start and just see where it goes.”
