Supercomputer predicts Challenge Cup Round 2 matches
European Challenge CupFriday, 12 December 2025 at 11:30
Round Two of the EPCR Challenge Cup brings a fresh batch of finely balanced matchups, and Sports4Cast’s supercomputer has delivered its predicted scorelines and percentage chances for every fixture.
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From overwhelming favourites to near coin-flips, the algorithm weighs form, momentum and historical data to project how each contest may unfold.
Here’s a full breakdown of where the numbers lean—and which teams could spring a surprise this weekend.
Montpellier vs Zebre
With a commanding 90% chance of victory and a predicted 33–15 outcome, the odds lean heavily toward Montpellier. Ali Price has settled quickly since arriving in France and could feature after watching his teammates grind out a valuable win in Georgia last week.
Zebre, meanwhile, make the trip following a routine home victory over struggling Montauban, but this challenge is of a different magnitude. Momentum, home advantage and squad depth all point toward a strong Montpellier showing, leaving Zebre with a sizeable task.
Benetton vs Perpignan
Favour stands with Benetton, who carry a 76% win probability and a projected 27–17 result, but the game still has intrigue. Late brilliance—two tries from Leonardo Marin and a drop goal by Tomas Albornoz—saw the Italians snatch a Round One win after a scrappy afternoon in Johannesburg.
Perpignan, despite their winless domestic campaign, overcame the Dragons, though the Welsh side are also struggling. With speculation around Albornoz’s future and Benetton’s strong finish last week, the hosts appear well placed to extend their European form.
Cheetahs vs Stade Français
Little separates these teams, with the Cheetahs holding a narrow 52% edge over Stade Français’ 46%, and a predicted 27–25 thriller in Amsterdam. Tries are expected given both sides’ attacking tendencies. The Cheetahs are eager to rebound after a heavy loss to Exeter but will view this neutral-venue match as a chance to reset.
Stade arrive after confidently dispatching Cardiff in Round One, carrying far better momentum. With neither defence entirely convincing, this matchup looks primed for an open, high-scoring encounter.
Montauban vs Ospreys
A razor-thin margin gives the Ospreys a 51% chance to Montauban’s 46%, with a predicted 24–23 away win. Confidence is low in the French camp after a 41–17 defeat to Zebre, yet their home form in the Top 14 suggests they can still trouble visiting sides.
The Ospreys edged Connacht last weekend but haven’t travelled well this season, leaving room for an upset. Montauban could finally claim a European win—though the numbers still lean Welsh.
Newcastle Red Bulls vs Lions
Momentum appears to be building for Newcastle, yet the Lions are given a slight 51% advantage and a projected 20–19 success. The South Africans will be stung by their defeat to Benetton, while Newcastle’s morale is lifted after outplaying Lyon.
Travel logistics may complicate matters for the Lions, who face a quick turnaround before a URC derby with the Stormers and could rest key personnel. That scenario only tightens an already finely balanced fixture—one that could hinge on a single moment.
Connacht vs Black Lion
A strong 81% win probability places Connacht firmly in control of this matchup, with Sports4Cast predicting a 38–12 victory. Both teams somehow surrendered sizeable half-time advantages last weekend—Black Lion giving up a 13–0 lead to Montpellier, and Connacht letting a 16-point cushion slip against Cardiff.
Improved composure after the break will be the coaching focus, but home conditions at the Dexcom Stadium typically favour the Irish side. With Connacht expected to roll out a powerful lineup, the Georgians face a demanding evening.
Cardiff vs Ulster
Form swings sharply between these two, yet Cardiff hold a marginal 52% chance of success against Ulster’s 45%, with a predicted 23–22 scoreline. Ulster arrive fresh off a devastating 61–7 win over Racing 92, while Cardiff were well beaten by Stade Français.
Historical trends back Ulster too—five wins from the last six meetings—but Cardiff did claim the most recent URC clash at the same venue. With little separating the sides statistically or emotionally, another tight Welsh-Irish derby seems likely.
Racing 92 vs Exeter
Pressure sits squarely on Racing after their heavy 61–7 loss to Ulster, though they still carry a 68% chance of victory and a predicted 27–19 result. A rotated squad contributed to last week's struggles, and a return home should sharpen their edge.
Exeter, contrastingly, were incisive in their 42–12 Round One win, showing real cutting power with ball in hand. An open contest is possible given both sides’ attacking intent, but Racing’s squad depth and home environment tilt the balance.
Dragons vs Lyon
Although the Dragons will sense an opportunity at home, Lyon take the field with a 64% win probability and a projected 25–20 victory. Their defeat to Newcastle forces the French side to treat this away fixture more seriously than planned, potentially strengthening their selection.
The Dragons suffered a 41–17 loss to Perpignan and remain winless at home in the URC, adding further weight to Lyon’s position. Even with local backing, the Welsh region face a steep challenge against a motivated visiting outfit.
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- Jordie Barrett over Damian de Allende is far from being correct. The hype around Dupont is also overreaching, he's probably 4th in the world and has been since the 2023 WC. He also avoids certain matchups which is strange. The rest of the list is pretty good apart from minor subjective biases.JasonMarlow16-09-2026
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