Ireland take on Scotland this Saturday night, in an important Pool B match at the Rugby World Cup. This ‘Home Nations’ clash will go a long way to decide who progresses into the quarter-finals, with former Ireland winger Luke Fitzgerald fully backing Andy Farrell’s side for the win.
Ireland are currently enjoying their best ever run of test match form. Farrell’s men have won 16 consecutive matches, which stands as the nation’s all-time best throughout a 147-year history that dates back to 1875. Ireland’s inspired run of form stretches back to their 2022 Summer Tour of New Zealand, in which they lost the first test, before winning the overall series 2-1.
Fitzgerald compared today’s Ireland side to that of ‘New Zealand at their peak’. Fitzgerald represented Ireland during the All Blacks’ eight-year domination of international rugby, when they won the 2011 and 2015 Rugby World Cups. Fitzgerald can see Ireland recording a comfortable win over Scotland in Saint-Denis. Fitzgerald, speaking to BoyleSports who offer the latest Rugby World Cup betting & odds, said:
“Ireland will win by 15 points. I think they are a better team across the board. The only thing that will stop them is if they get a red card. Ireland have won their last eight fixtures against Scotland. They know how to do it.”
“Ireland’s rucking is so accurate and physical which you did hear South Africa remark on which is unusual for them. But the ball handling ability of all the players is incredible.
“They remind me of New Zealand at their peak, those great teams where everyone could pass the ball. Make good decisions and are comfortable with the ball in hand.
“It means that for any opposition you have no break as a defence. They seem to position themselves very well to be able to get the ball but they can all make the pass which means that the ball gets to places where if someone has taken a break or is out of position.
“That is the best thing about this Irish team. I always felt this when I played for Ireland against those great New Zealand teams. You never got any respite. The ball always found the best place to be.”
Ireland’s long-standing ‘quarter-final curse’ will soon be put to the test, as they are all but through the pool stages in pole position. Fitzgerald believes that we will see an end to this hex in France, and backs Ireland to go all the way for a first ever Rugby World Cup title.
“They are excellent, the deserved number one team in the world, based on the body of work that has gone behind them. They are probably the best positioned Irish team I have ever seen to go ahead and break that quarter final hoodoo.
“This squad is perfectly primed to deliver on its potential. And do really well in this tournament. This is the best chance we have ever had to win it.”
It is certainly ‘do-or-die’ time for Scotland, with defeat to Ireland being the nail in the coffin. Gregor Townsend’s men enter the match off the back of an enormous victory over Romania. Scotland’s 84-0 dominance was a bigger margin of victory against the Oaks than Ireland (82-8) or South Africa (76-0), in a statement that they are not just here to make up the numbers in the ‘Pool of Death’.
Fitzgerald recognises the talent within the Scotland squad, and identified powerhouse winger Duhan van der Merwe as a definite player to watch out for, but also highlighted a weakness in his game. The former Ireland international also discussed how he thinks the Scotland players will be fired up, and ready to capitalise on any Ireland complacency, following their recent fallow week of relaxation.
“He is a real weapon in attack. But I sometimes think his decision making and positioning in defence can be suspect.
“I think he can be got at in the air and you can expose him in defence. You do get his attacking potential but you also get someone who can be a bit awkward under a high ball when he is being competed against.
“To me in sport I always have this thing about great athletes like Michael Jordan and Muhammed Ali, who in their own field were fantastic attackers but also brilliant in defence. Great players to me are great defenders too.”
“It will be easier for Scotland to get up for this game. They will think that they will have seen the pictures of Ireland players drinking Rosé, which I’ve got no problem with by the way, and they will think these guys think it is over and done with.
“There is enough motivation there. They are obviously going home if they don’t pull out a big win, plus they will have seen some of the comments from Bundee Aki saying we will be seeing South Africa again later in the competition. The only way that is going to happen is in the final.
“This is not unwinnable for Scotland by any stretch. This is a two horse race. I think Ireland are the better side no doubt about it, but Scotland have quality and can hurt teams all over the pitch. They are number 5 in the world for a reason.”
The lifelong Leinsterman then gave his verdict on where Ireland and Scotland would approach the match from a strategic standpoint. There is no doubting the preparedness of both sides mentally, but from an on-field perspective Fitzgerald once again hands the advantage to his nation following the successes against the Springboks and the all-round fitness in the Irish camp.
“Ireland have a definite advantage in terms of forward pack versus forward pack and definitely on the bench in terms of what they have in the pack.
“I think they will be pretty direct, trying to take the Scottish pack on as often as possible. First things first approach. They will try to maul the Scottish pack and push them around. I would be trying to exert as much pressure as possible at scrum time. I would be pretty direct in terms of the exchanges near the ruck. I wouldn’t be trying too much at the start of the game”
“That nexus at 9 and ten, an opponent is always looking to disrupt them to make them tired give them more physical work to do because in any sport where there is anaerobic component the more tired you are the worse your decision-making is.
“Based on that simple fact I’d be trying to target them all day long no matter what. Make them wrestle with the bigger guys, make more tackles, make them carry more cut off more options so they have to carry the ball in, get them involved in rucks.”
“It was a fairly exhausting game to have come through for Ireland (against South Africa). You could see how much energy was expended.
“They have a rude bill of health. To have 33 guys available is unheard of. They are in really good shape and they are primed to deliver.”
Fitzgerald represented Ireland for a decade, as he donned the fabled green jersey from 2006 to 2016. Reaching the top of his game for the 2009 British & Irish Lions Tour to South Africa, Fitzgerald has enjoyed a career alongside certifiable icons of the game.
The 36-year-old identified Johnny Sexton as the man to lead Ireland forward against Scotland. The halfback certainly has a target painted on his back, and was on the receiving end of some tough tackles against South Africa. More of the same is expected against Scotland, as Sexton could well leave the pitch as black and blue as his opponents’ kit colours.
However, the outing against the Springboks presented that Sexton still has the tenacity to ride out the most physical of encounters. Having been Leinster teammates for all but three years of Fitzgerald’s career, the former winger knows all too well how Sexton can be the difference maker for Ireland this Saturday.
“Ireland definitely has an advantage at ten in terms of decision making. If Johnny stays on point for most of the game that will be a key reason why Ireland will win the game.
“Unless you have played with him it is very hard to understand and appreciate how good his decision making is under pressure. His passing is unbelievable. There is no-one in world rugby who comes close.
“Based on decision making ability with less time than anyone else, the quality of his passing is unparalleled. I have never seen a player do it as well as him.
“It is the thing that makes him so difficult to try to target. If you overdo it and maybe leave a little bit of a dog leg or if you’re a little bit ahead of the guy beside you, he will find a hole. That is something you always have to watch when you target him.
“Then you have his vast array of kicking options. Lovely short options and long. He is the full package but the ball handling and the decision making are what make him so hard to target. You need to be smart.”
Fitzgerald then turned his attention to the Springboks. The Dubliner has gone to war against South Africa numerous times for his country, and on the 2009 British & Irish Lions Tour. The ‘Boks have played all four matches and will watch on for this final round of Pool stage action.
Fitzgerald believes that Springboks Director of Rugby Rassie Erasmus is worried, as there is a chance South Africa could face a pool stage elimination. The Springboks are no longer the deciders of their own destiny, Erasmus explained in a recent media session.
“If Scotland beat Ireland by eight points or more and Ireland don’t get a bonus point, then Ireland are out,” said Erasmus. “Then, if all three teams finish on 15 log points, the team with the best points difference will go through.
“If Scotland have the best points difference, then we’ll fall out because Ireland defeated us, but for that to happen Scotland must score four tries and beat Ireland by more than 21 points, and Ireland must also get a bonus point.
“On the other hand, if Ireland have the best points difference, then we’ll go through because we defeated Scotland.” Erasmus said.
Fitzgerald believes that Rassie’s external focuses are due to his own fears of an early Rugby World Cup exit. The 34-capped Ireland International believes that the Springboks made numerous selection mistakes, and recent high profile injuries could well come back to haunt them.
“Erasmus I think is actually pretty concerned that he has let himself open. No matter how small the chance is, the ‘Boks players will be sitting on the couch looking at the result and knowing there is literally nothing they can do to impact their own fate.
“They (South Africa) have left the opening for a weird result. And I think Erasmus’ selections at the start of the tournament could come back to haunt him, not least his seven-one bench against Ireland.
“That is why he is talking about a game that he has no involvement in. It is because he is worried. He has made mistakes around squad selections which have forced him into this position.”
South Africa struggled with recent injury blows heading into the tournament, with fly-half Handre Pollard, centre Lukhanyo Am and lock Lood de Jager all sidelined. In Pollard’s absence, kicking duties fell to Manie Libbok, who’s poor form from the tee brought plenty of scrutiny down on the Stormers man. Fitzgerald highlighted this as a key area where the ‘Boks selectors let themselves down, as Libbok left key points on the pitch in the narrow 13-8 defeat to Ireland.
“They (South Africa) simply had to at least select one recognised placekicker who has done it under pressure. The selection of an inexperienced player in terms of a place kicker who as a player has a very low percentage doesn’t tally up with any of South Africa’s strategy.
“If you are picking a 6-2 or 7-1 bench and you are playing essentially a ten man game you surely need someone who can kick their goals. That did not make sense to me on any level.
“Given that they are World Champions and the quality of the squad it is a surprise they are in this situation. Some people might think it has been a master plan, to me it was a big mistake.”
Recent injuries to hooker Malcolm Marx and winger Makazole Mapimpi, has opened up space for Pollard and Am’s late call-ups in to the Springboks squad. Fitzgerald’s view is that Marx’s injury could be very costly on the Springboks, due to their reduced squad depth in the number two jersey.
“It was absolutely bizarre that they had no-one who is an internationally recognised hooker as a back up, not turn to someone, Dean Fourie, who played four or five years ago at hooker throwing in under massive pressure”