Given that spread betting works on degrees of correctness, a mistake – be it a fumble, a missed kick or a bad decision – can deny punters serious money. Below we take a look at some of the costliest moments from the last 5 years!
1. Freddie Burns v Toulouse, 2018
Sadly the moment forever associated with his time at Bath, Freddie Burns’s late fumble against Toulouse not only cost them the Champions Cup opener, but prevented rugby spread betting fans from making a pretty penny.
The should’ve-been hometown hero had already scored in in the 29th minute, meaning he was one for his 2nd try when he celebrated too early in the 75th minute, allowing Maxime Medard to knock the ball from his hands.
If he hadn’t been cocky, and actually scored, his Player Try Minutes makeup would have risen from 29 to 104! So though, at a starting price of 5-8, he still won you 21 times your initial stake, if he hadn’t made that career-defining error, you would’ve won 96 times your initial stake ((29 +75) – 8 = 96).
Even worse was the impact on his Super Mega Try Minutes makeup. That’s a Player Total Try Minutes market, but where the minutes of a player’s 2nd try are doubled, and 3rd try are trebled. So, he if had scored in the 75th minute, his makeup would have surged from 29 to a whopping 179! Buy at a starting spread of 8-11, and you could’ve ended up with 168 times your initial stake ((29 + (75 x 2)) – 11 = 168).
2. Owen Farrell v Toulouse, 2016
Back in 2016 Owen Farrell made a similar error to Burns, when Saracens visited Toulouse in the Champions Cup. Luckily his 55th minute fumble didn’t affect the end result for the Men in Black, who still won 28-17. But how much did it cost punters?
By the final whistle, the Total Try Minutes market came in at 216. That meant anyone buying at a starting spread of 221-242 lost 26 times their initial stake (242 – 216 = 26). However, if Farrell had scored, the makeup would’ve hit 271, meaning anyone buying at that same price would’ve made 29 times their initial stake (271 – 242 = 29).
Say if the try had also led to a successful conversion, Saracens would’ve won by 35-17 rather than 28-17. That meant buying a Saracens/Toulouse (h) Points Supremacy spread of 2-5 could’ve made you 13 times your initial stake ((35 – 17) – 5 = 13) instead of the eventual 6 time multiplier they did make.
Worst of all, Farrell’s fumble prevented the Saracens Multi-Points market – that’s 1st Half Points times 2nd Half Points – from hitting 234, instead of 171, with a successful conversion. If he had scored, then, buying at 130-153 would’ve won you 81 times your initial stake (234 – 154 = 81).
3. Chris Robshaw v Wales, 2015
This one’s a bit different, and involves a few more hypotheticals. In the dying moments of England’s clash with Wales at the 2015 World Cup, captain Chris Robshaw decided to kick a penalty to the corner, rather than draw level. The hosts went on to lose 28-25.
Let’s say he had scored the penalty instead. Not only would it have taken the England Multi-Points makeup from 144 to 192 – buy at 118-140 and that’s 52 times your initial stake (192 – 140 = 52) instead of the actual 4 times your initial stake – but a draw likely would’ve put the competition hosts into the quarter-finals.
That alone would’ve saved anyone who bought England at an Outright Index spread of 52-55 a fair few quid. The World Cup Outright Index market sees the winner receives 100 points, the runner-up 80, 3rd place 60 and 4th place 50. The losing quarter-finalists then get 25 points, whilst the third place side in a Pool gets 10 and fourth in the Pool gets 5.
So, that meant England picked up 10 points for coming 3rd in Pool A, losing those who bought at that aforementioned price 45 times their initial stake (55 – 10 = 45). If they’ve reached, and then gone out, in the quarters, those losses would have been cut to 30 times your initial stake (55 – 25 = 30).
But what if we went full butterfly effect? Say England, buoyed by home support, went on to beat South Africa in the quarters, saw-off New Zealand in the semis and then got revenge on Australia in the final, punters would’ve made 45 times their initial stake (100 – 55 = 45). To think, how much one decision changes it all!