With one round of the Rugby World Cup 2023 pool phase left to play, only two teams – Wales and England – are already guaranteed qualification for the quarter-finals. Six places in the last eight are still to play for and below we outline how results in each of the pools could still affect the outcome.
These permutations also highlight teams who can secure automatic qualification for Rugby World Cup 2027 by finishing no lower than third in their pool.
Pool A
Namibia cannot qualify for the quarter-finals as they are on zero points with no games left to play. Namibia can also not automatically qualify for Rugby World Cup 2027. France have gained automatic qualification for RWC 2027 as it is impossible for them not to finish outside the top three.
Both quarter-final spots and the other two 2027 qualification places are to be decided:
- France will top Pool A if they avoid defeat against Italy.
- Two losing bonus points would also be enough for France to top Pool A providing Italy do not get a try-bonus point in victory (15 points to 14). France will finish ahead of New Zealand on the head-to-head rule if both end up on 15 points.
- A bonus-point win for New Zealand will secure qualification for the quarter-finals. Even if France, Italy and New Zealand all finish on 15 points, the All Blacks have the better points difference (+133 to France’s +125 and Italy -14). Italy would then qualify in second ahead of France on the head-to-head rule.
- Uruguay must beat New Zealand with a try-bonus point, and by at least 80 points, and will need France to defeat Italy in order to qualify for the quarter-finals.
- Uruguay must beat New Zealand with a try-bonus point, prevent the All Blacks from taking any bonus point and hope Italy get something out of their game with France to finish third on the head-to-head rule with New Zealand to secure qualification for RWC 2027.
- A point will confirm Italy’s qualification for RWC 2027.