England take on the Springboks this Saturday night, as knock-out action continues for the Rugby World Cup semi-finals. England booked their spot in the final four after a 30-24 quarter-final win over Fiji, with Steve Borthwick’s side pushed to their limits at times by the Pacific Islanders.
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England take on South Africa for the sixth time at the Rugby World Cup, and are a side who have historically had the edge over England at the competition. In the past five World Cup meetings between the two sides, the Springboks have won on four occasions, including the 2019 and 2007 Rugby World Cup Finals. South Africa reached the semi-final after clawing past France with a narrow 29-28 win.
It is now down to Borthwick to make some key selection choices ahead of the weekend. Here are our predictions for Steve Borthwick’s side, that will take on South Africa for a spot in the 2023 Rugby World Cup Final.
BACK THREE
15. Freddie Steward (Leicester Tigers) for Marcus Smith
14. Jonny May (Gloucester Rugby)
11. Elliot Daly (Saracens)
It could have all been part of the plan to leave Freddie Steward out of the squad for the match against Fiji, with Marcus Smith’s unpredictable dynamism a better match to take on the Pacific Islanders. Steward is now far better rested than Smith, who was left beaten and bruised after the quarter-final battle, and now the Leicester Tigers man is rumoured to be on his way back into the starting line-up for the semi-final clash with the Springboks.
Borthwick will be looking at were Steward bests Smith from a fullback perspective, with Steward’s size, experience and talents under the high ball all playing into the selection. Steward is 4 stone heavier and 5 inches taller than Smith, giving him an edge on bringing down the towering line-breaks of the Boks. Steward is also regarded amongst the best players under the arial assault, and his abilities will likely be called upon when Pollard, Libbok and de Klerk send the ball skyward into the Parisian night.
Steward has the proven experience of handling a back-line in the high-stakes matches, and has worn the 15 jersey for 89 of his 96 career starts. Smith however, got his first ever taste of fullback in the Summer loss to Fiji, with just five positional caps and 194 on-field minutes under his fullback belt. We expect to see Smith dropped to the bench, to be a key impact player once the match opens up, after the opening arm-wrestle with South Africa.
We also predict Borthwick to select Elliot Daly and Jonny May out on the wings, with the two players having proven their defensive capabilities. Daly doubles up as a nice covering option across the midfield and the back three, with May also capable to swap wings if need be. Borthwick knows that it will be a ultimately physical test against South Africa, and will need his most versatile and adaptable side ready for any untimely injuries.
We predict that despite scoring five tries in his sole Rugby World Cup appearance to date, Henry Arundell will be left out of the squad for the semi-final stage. The explosive 20-year-old winger was unused in the dead-rubber match against Samoa, and again in the quarter-final test with Fiji. It is looking increasingly unlikely for his involvement against the Springboks, despite the clambering fan support.
CENTRES
13. Joe Marchant (Stade Francais)
12. Manu Tuilagi (Sale Sharks)
England should stick with their tried-and-tested midfield that has been working so far in the tournament. We saw just how convoluted the game-plan became, when Owen Farrell was re-introduced to the centres against Samoa. England lost their attacking structure, with two many halfbacks spoiling the pot. bringing Farrell back in at 12 could over-complicate matters, and South Africa are a side that do the basics well, and nail them every time.
We can see Borthwick sticking with the Tuilagi-Marchant midfield axis, as the two work together symbiotically in the centres. Tuilagi brings his immense ball carrying strengths, whilst Marchant possess neat playmaking skills, to create space on the wrapping lines. The Sale Sharks man benefits from the open-field ingenuity of Marchant, with the pair both shining with quarter-final tries against Fiji. Tuilagi’s effort was a bulldozing drive from close range, whilst Marchant sold the dummy, and manoeuvred his way over the try-line to showcase his own unique skillset.
This leaves the contention of Ollie Lawrence in doubt for the match-day 23. The Bath man has been a fine understudy for Tuilagi, but with Marcus Smith, George Ford and Alex Mitchell as the backs on our bench, we see no space for the centre against South Africa. Marchant’s adaptability to push out wide if called upon adds to his claim for the 13 jersey, however he shouldn’t be started on the wing as England did against Samoa. Despite his out-and-out pace, Marchant is best utilised alongside Tuilagi up the midfield of the park.