Sport statistic gurus Opta, have conducted a simulation to predict the winner of the 2023 Rugby World Cup. However, even the most advanced technological predictions are able to find a definitive winner, as this year’s Rugby World Cup is arguably the most competitive tournament in recent memory.
Opta reportedly simulated the Rugby World Cup 10 million times, to find out who has the best odds of coming away from France with the Web Ellis Trophy. However, four teams find themselves separated by the slightest of margins, with Ireland selected as the ‘favourites’ by a lead of just 0.3%.
Ireland, France, South Africa and New Zealand lead the way, with each team getting between 20-21% of the overall backing. Argentina are the fifth highest with 5.7%, with England behind them at just 4.4%. The lop-sided nature of the 2023 Rugby World Cup sees the top five ranked sides in the world compete on the same side of the bracket, between Pools A and B.
Due to the draw taking place in December 2020, France and the All Blacks are drafted together in Pool A, whilst Ireland, Scotland and the Springboks occupy Pool B for the ‘group of death’. Only one of these fives teams can get to the Rugby World Cup Final, with Argentina, England or Australia favourites to reach the final from the opposite bracket of the tournament.
Pool C is the hardest group to predict for the two progressors, as there are four viable winners in Australia, Wales, Fiji and Georgia. Pool D sees Argentina and England most likely to advance, with Los Pumas more than capable of making a historic first ever Rugby World Cup Final. It certainly is shaping up to be a Rugby World Cup like no other, and this optimised best by the all-knowing simulation being unable to identify a clear winner in France.